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Christian Drosten, one of the world’s leading epidemiologists, warned that the strategy in the fight against the coronary virus pandemic should be “at least to strive to reduce the number of infected to zero,” that is, to reduce their number quickly and constant. .
– First of all, because I am very afraid of what might otherwise happen in the spring and summer – said the German expert in an interview with “Spiegel”.
Europe is largely blocked again, vaccination campaigns have started in some places, but that’s not enough, says Drosten.
In an interview, a prominent crown researcher explains what to do now to avoid new waves in the spring and summer.
– When the elderly and part of the risk groups are vaccinated, we will be exposed to enormous economic, political and perhaps even legal pressures to end the measures against the corona virus. And then before long, far more people will be infected than we can imagine right now, he warned, advocating for premature mitigation of the measures.
However, the infection will spread primarily among the very young, who are less likely to suffer from a severe form of the disease, but intensive care units will automatically replenish themselves, Drosten predicts, when there are more contagious mutations like the British variant B. 1.1 .7 are of particular concern.
“Zero kovid” strategy
Drosten does not think the situation will improve in the summer and says the fact that “we had such a relaxed summer in 2020” is probably related to the fact that the level of infected in the spring was below the critical threshold. But that’s not the case now. “
Drosten fears that the situation is “like in Spain”, where the number of infected is growing rapidly again, despite the warmer climate and the quarantine.
– And in the Republic of South Africa, where it is now summer, the number of infected is high – he said.
Despite vaccination, the negative scenario could only be resolved by constantly reducing the number of infected people, believes Drosten, who represents the so-called “zero kovid” strategy, that is. a strategy to reduce the number of infected to zero.
According to him, the goal should be at least “zero new infections”.
– I think it would be possible with considerable effort. The virus, of course, would continue to occur, as we have seen in China and Australia. But it would be worth at least targeting zero new infections. First of all, because I’m quite worried about what might happen differently in the spring and summer – he said.
Maybe better in the fall
Expect to see progress in the fall.
– I think that somewhere in mid-autumn we should see the effects of vaccination, not only in terms of protection of risk groups, but also at the level of the entire population, so that we have much fewer infections – says the epidemiologist. But to achieve that now, “something unforeseen must not happen,” he adds, referring to mutations in the virus that will not be affected by vaccines, reports “Fokus”, referring to “Spiegel.”
By the way, already in the early days of the pandemic, New Zealand introduced a “zero covid” strategy and the strictest measures to try to eradicate the coronavirus through extensive testing, contact tracking and quarantine.
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