This is what epidemiologists say, until when will we live with COVID-19 among ourselves

A mobile phone, a wallet, a key, a mask and a hand sanitizer are part of our daily life. Waving and yelling from a distance continues to cause unusual discomfort in people. Seeing movies and series that were filmed before the crown where people walk freely without a mask for a moment causes a “short circuit” in the head because “for the love of God, why is everyone so close to each other? !? ” All in all, life without the crown seems to have existed in some earlier historical time, but people still have no hope that 2021 will be much better than 2020.

SURVEY

Are you depressed due to a pandemic that has been going on for almost a year?

Will 2021 really be the year in which we can have a normal drink with friends, go out, go to the store without a mask and with foggy glasses? Epidemiologists are not entirely optimistic.

Epidemiologist Predrag Kon said he had been burned before with predictions of the end. korona virusa in Serbia and mathematical forecasts.

– I can’t explain how I keep up. We will live with the crown, that’s for sure, but after such a big wave and vaccine, we will hardly have this problem after next summer. says our epidemiologist.

Secretary of State in the Health Ministry, Dr. Mirsad Đerlek, told Kurir that life should slightly normalize in the fall of 2021, when the current anti-epidemic measures should be at a minimum.

– Next year will certainly not be without measures. All of 2021 will be devoted to immunization. We plan for two to four million people to get the vaccine, and that takes time, Djerlek says.

Vaccination should be done in three phases, according to priorities.

– At the end of December or January, we will begin to vaccinate health workers and employees in social institutions and nursing homes. In the first quarter we should receive 350,000 doses of “Pfizer” vaccines, with which we have a contract for a total of 1.8 million doses – explained Dr. Djerlek.

Dr. Djerlek added that medical workers are a priority to receive the vaccine. The next priorities are the military, the police, and those over 65 with comorbidities. He added that immunity is not acquired immediately after receiving the vaccine, but takes time and that is one of the factors why some measures will remain in force during the next year.

– In the end, mass vaccination is imminent, we hope in the spring or summer of 2021. The division will probably disappear: the northern part of Serbia, central Serbia, Belgrade and the southern part of Serbia, so we will make checkpoints in selected cities. Since everyone should receive two doses at least three weeks apart, so it takes another month or two to get immunity, at best in the first, second quarter of 2022, we can talk about immunity collective and back to normal. So, hopefully in mid-2022, we will remove our masks. However, no one in the world can say that for sure yet – concludes Dr. Đerlek.

Epidemiologist Dr. Radmilo Petrović also pointed out that no one alive knows when we will live normally, but that it will be at best mid-2022:

– It depends on how many vaccines and when we are going to give them, but also on how many people will want to be vaccinated, because it will be voluntary. And that is why the state must first stop the anti-vaccines, which are talking nonsense. The vaccine is salvation. And when vaccines come, it takes time for immunity. So all of 2021 will be under masks and part of 2022.

Christian Drosten, one of the leading German epidemiologists, virologist and scientist at the “Sharite” Hospital, warned that there is no realistic reason to expect that all citizens will be vaccinated soon.

He believes that vaccination will not prevent the spread of the infection. Rather, it could spark another strong coronavirus wave and eventually create a “new patient profile.”

– Such a large part of the population will not be vaccinated at the end of January. It will not be easy to meet expectations in terms of time. Also, given the amount of vaccine to be delivered, vaccination will not stop the pandemic spread of the infection – said Drosten on the podcast “Coronavirus-Update” on the GDR network.

However, the German expert predicts that the population will no longer be willing to respect such measures at some point.

– At some point in the summer, we may find that people with a high risk factor who wanted to be vaccinated have been vaccinated. At that point, we will no longer be able to convince the public that non-pharmaceutical measures should be maintained. At some point, we will have to open up… At some point, the infection will be widespread among the population to an unprecedented extent – said Drosten.

Summer temperatures will help us, but after the warmer days, the situation will change, explains the virologist.

– When the summer passes, we will have a large number of infected people in the population group in which there has been no infection so far: among healthy people, without risk factors – said Drosten.

The pandemic, however, will then slowly subside, because part of the population will be vaccinated and part will already recover from the infection, but people of a different profile will be treated in hospitals, Drosten said.