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Scientists predict that there are three possible scenarios for COVID-19 in the future: the appearance of a mini epidemic wave, the second, an even larger epidemic wave and a constant crisis, according to the United States Statue.
Source: Tanjug
Photo: depositphotos, belchonock
These forecasts are the result of research by epidemiologist Michael Osterholm and colleagues at the University of Minnesota.
First scenario: mini-waves for two years
Under the first possible scenario, the great epidemic wave that we have been experiencing since the beginning of the year will be accompanied by the appearance of mini-epidemic waves among which there will be no cases of infection.
This situation could erode in the next two years, with the emergence and withdrawal of mini-waves of the epidemic that would be half the spring and the highest wages would be in the flu season.
This means that the epidemic could show seasonal variations, but the virus will not be eliminated by the hot and humid climate, experts say.
Such weather can kill the virus on the surface, but it cannot prevent transmission of the virus from person to person, by gout.
Photo: Depositphotos, HayDmitriy
Scenario 2: an even bigger wave of the epidemic
Under the second scenario, the wave of epidemic that we are witnessing will be followed by the appearance of another wave of epidemic, even bigger, at the end of this year that will be stronger and more lasting.
This scenario predicts that during the summer there will be a significant drop in the number of people gained when people relax, which will make the new wave of the epidemic even stronger.
Osterholm predicts that at this stage the health system could be seriously threatened, even if hospitals are preparing for a new wave of the epidemic.
Scenario 3: new normal
The third scenario predicts that the current wave of the epidemic will create a “new normal” and that, until the end of 2022, contagion will continue to occur on a smaller scale than the second scenario predicts.
Local infections will occur, somewhere smaller and much larger, and their extent depends on several factors, such as testing and monitoring capabilities.
In this case, it would be better to administer the coronavirus vaccine, since otherwise half the world population would become infected, with or without the symptoms of the disease.
Photo by Gettyimages, David Silverman
Pore resistance of the entire human population.
Although these three scenarios differ widely, they have in common that they do not foresee a return to the previous situation. The infection will not go away because people are not immune to it.
“This pandemic will not subside until there is sufficient resistance in the population,” net more than 50 percent, said epidemiologist Gabriel Leung of the University of Hong Kong.
Osterholm claims that the world population is far from this level of resistance to the virus and that no more than five percent of people are immune to the virus because they have been infected.
Therefore, the virus will continue to spread for a long time.
It is impossible to reduce infections to zero, Leung said, and losses are inevitable, and each country will need to determine what great loss it is for them and take appropriate action accordingly.
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