If the truth is what the rumors about Kim Jong Un are saying, what about North Korea’s nuclear weapons?

In addition to internal change, a dramatic transition in North Korea could bring an exodus of people, with North Korea’s shifting focus on nuclear weapons policies and international engagement.

First, none of these changes resulted in the death of an autocrat. In nearly a third of democratization cases, the trigger was the end of the conflict, political chaos, or a foreign threat.

• 

The cessation of foreign support for autocrats has contributed to a historic change. This was the case in Eastern Europe when Soviet support failed. In North Korea, Chinese influence and the example of Beijing have fostered greater international openness and political reaction, even if it is not a liberal democracy.

• 

So ending Chinese support would not help North Korea’s democracy in the same way that ending Soviet influence helped Eastern Europe, writes “Nationalinterest.org”.

• 

In the remaining third, the leap to democracy occurred when pressures from the national population made the country unsustainable. Leaders made democratic commitments to secure their views on what they thought was an inevitable transition to democracy.

• 

By ensuring their individual political survival, the entire political elite experienced a decline and went into democracy.

• 

Indonesia and Myanmar are perfect examples of this: those generals who first supported democracy survived politically.

• 

North Korea has made no significant protests or acts of civil disobedience. So the elite has not yet reached democracy. If Kim were to die suddenly, the best hope for a democratic future would be with a successor more willing to allow the development of civil society and less paranoid about security.

If the political elite sees that the country’s main challenge is security, they will probably select a leader from a security institution. However, if economic development is the main challenge, the opportunity will be more economically oriented.

Any foreign manipulation or mistreatment to help the people of North Korea can therefore be counterproductive. The absence of such foreign behavior provides a better opportunity for the development elite.

North Koreans, suffering enduring poverty and political oppression while witnessing economic prosperity and political freedom in neighboring countries, may be in a state of involuntary immobility.

North Korea is currently like a tap that is about to explode. Once the valve is opened, either hot or cold, the water will flow.

From the data on refugee transitions and regimes, we can see that a chaotic transition in an autocratic state will increase opportunities for people to flee in search of a better life, even if the transition were in a more democratic direction.

If the regime is exploited by those who are even more autocratic but still intact by such strong scrutiny, there is likely to be an exodus because the North Koreans will have more reason and capacity to try to escape the country.

Consequently, humanitarian progress and the national interest of neighboring countries would be on the side of the growing, but not drastic, chaotic changes in North Korea.