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Serbia is in the third wave of coronavirus, we have more than 200 new people infected in 24 hours, according to the latest data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), we have a little more than 30 people infected for each 100,000 inhabitants, and everyone is more interested in how many This kovid hit lasts even when its peak is expected.
According to the statements of epidemiologists, members of the Crisis Staff, the third wave could be the longest so far, lasting five months, that is, until spring, but that does not mean that it will be the strongest, it is that is to say, the most lethal so far.
And although experts avoid giving more specific forecasts, prof. Dr. Petar Kocovic, an engineer who uses mathematical models to monitor the pandemic around the world, announced on September 14 that Serbia is in the third wave, but he also has a clear projection of when the peak will follow, as well as when we can. wait for the situation to calm down.
Based on these calculations, based on Kocovic’s most recent charts, the highest number of infected in the third wave of the crown in Serbia can be expected very soon. Now we have entered the red zone (more than 30 infected per 100,000), and soon we will see purple (more than 50 infected per 100,000 inhabitants).
– Around November 5 we could reach the top, and around November 15 of the same month, the third wave could start to fall, if we are not wrong somewhere. So that would be a fantastic result too. But, it appears that without some drastic measures from crisis personnel, that will not be possible, Kočović wrote on Facebook.
However, what is brave in these projections is the fact that this blow is not expected to be as strong as it was in summer, that is, the maximum number of infected in 24 hours would not exceed the figure of 370, while in July we had a hundred more. Furthermore, if these projections are met, we would be in a much better situation than the neighboring countries: Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia.
Mathematical calculations show that in December the situation would begin to calm down, and that in the second half of that month, until the New Year holidays, we could have less than 50 people infected daily.
– My five-member team of mathematicians and programmers monitors the situation in all 216 countries on a daily basis. We use the Gauss curve (a mathematical model based on the work of the famous German mathematician and physicist Johann Karl Friedrich Gauss) that moves daily. The methodology is unique and is based on multiple waves – explained previously for prof “Blic”. Kocovic.
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