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The first hump, he says, was a peak, just at the end of the days of November last year and the first of December, and in this new increase in the number of infected, the jump will not be so pronounced.
– This third wave coat of arms will not be as strong as the first coat of arms in the period from November to December, when we had 7,999 in one day. This will not be so terrible, it has already started to subside. Let’s call this the second coat of arms of the third wave, because it is not a sword. The peak was with those 7,999 – he told us, adding that the increase in the number of infected has been registered since January 29 of this year, and that said decrease “should take place for a few days.”
According to their forecasts, a drop in the number of infected could be expected on Friday or Monday of next week.
When will the third wave end?
Kocovic also says that he cannot predict the end of the third wave at this point.
– I had February 22, then March 15, now I don’t have a date, but the third wave will last maybe until the end of April. It should have been finished or it should be ready in a day, but it will continue – he said.
As he explained, this increase in the number of infected cannot be called entering the fourth wave, because we did not leave the previous one. The number of patients should be reduced to seventy so that we can declare the end of the third wave, which did not happen in Serbia.
– First, we would have to fall for a few days on one infected per 100,000 inhabitants, or about 70 infected, depending on the number of inhabitants of seven million. China will enter the fourth wave, he told us, and he said it will happen around March 4-5.
He told us that, by definition, the epidemic did not end them – although in March of last year it was written that they had no cases of locally transmitted infection, only imported cases – because they did not have 28 consecutive days without any type of infection. infected. The closest to that was New Zealand at 14, 15 days with 0 infected, but was occasionally interrupted by new patients. Kocovic also claims that there are around 30 island states in the world between Asia and Australia, such as Polynesia and Micronesia, that have not been infected in all this time.
When will the epidemic end?
It has already ruled on bringing life back to more typical and common currents. He is still steadfast in assessing that the relief will bring late August or early September.
– We should also have 28 people infected for 28 days before the end of the epidemic. It will not be soon, but there will be some infected so that we can return to normality, that is the end of August, the beginning of September – he said.
They arrived at that date combining the effects of the vaccine and the number of those who had had the crown. They used the example of Gibraltar and Israel, which recently vaccinated their population, with around 40 percent revaccinated.
– We calculate it with another method, and that date has not moved yet: end of August, beginning of September. Gibraltar has completed 100 percent vaccination and Israel has reached 92 percent vaccination plus those infected, of which there are about eight percent. You can see in both countries, and they had many infected people, that the effect of the vaccine exists. However, they carried out the mission a few days ago, Gibraltar last week on Monday and Israel on Thursday, and the number of infected is slowly decreasing. We need to wait a bit longer, he said, citing these two examples that Pfizer vaccines were used where revaccination is scheduled for 21 days, and Astra Zeneca needs 12 weeks for revaccination, so the UK doesn’t have a single percentage. of revaccinated.
As he says, Britain vaccinated a third of the population, but mainly Astra with Zenek’s vaccine and a small part with Pfizer’s.
Statistics: in Serbia, 20% are immunized
The situation in Serbia is somewhat different. The combined effect of vaccination and those who have had covid is 20 percent.
– That is too little for us to say that this compound reduces infection. So 80 percent of those who have not been vaccinated and who can become infected – he said, adding that these are publicly available numbers: about 460 thousand cases registered with the number of deaths of 4,459 people and around 1.46 million vaccinated.
He states that due to the 56 percent reliability of the PCR test, agreement was reached among statisticians to use the recorded number of infected people for calculations.
– The point is that we should add 60 percent or subtract 60 percent of those infected, and then all those who make statistics agreed that only the registered number of infected people should be taken into account. Another thing, when we talk about the number of tested, there are, for example, athletes, footballers, basketball players, who have been tested 35 to 40 times so far, everyone enters the number of tested – he commented.
He also said that in Serbia, people are vaccinated at a rate of 0.2 percent of the population per day.
– We expect that when it exceeds 50 percent, the impact will begin to fall, and it should be at this rate in 70 to 90 days, let’s say in about three months. The number of vaccinated will begin to grow and the number of those who can be infected will decrease.
(Telegraph)
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