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Although a week ago, Serbia registered a record number of new infected with the virus every day, the number of patients in hospitals is not as large as in July, when, according to official data, there were between 400 and 500 patients a day.
Photo: EPA-EFE / MARKO DJOKOVICThus, yesterday 1,196 people were hospitalized, while 826 patients were detected, less than in the previous days when more than 1,000 infected were registered.
On the other hand, in July, the number of patients hospitalized in some days exceeded 4,500, while the number of cases detected did not exceed 500.
At the same time, the number of patients undergoing hospital treatment and the fear of the Italian scenario, that is, the moment when there is no one to attend to patients, are often mentioned as a factor when deciding on measures. more radical like the restriction of movement.
Danas’ interlocutors, infectologist Dragan Delic and epidemiologist Zoran Radovanovic, believe that there are several factors that could explain why, with such a record number of infected, hospital capacities are not filled as during the summer, adding that they should be considered steps before considering more stringent measures.
As they say, the change in the age structure that dominates among patients, but also the fact that the data of those infected from June and July were not accurate, may be some of the reasons why hospitals are not yet full. like during the summer.
At the same time, they point out that the number of infected people detected each day speaks in favor of the fact that the measures that are currently in force do not give results, but also that restricting circulation is not the only measure that can be withdrawn and that they should be consider intermediate steps.
– At the beginning of the epidemic, doctors did not know enough about this virus and the real dangers that this infection brings. I believe that over time they have acquired enough knowledge to be able to assess which patients and with which clinical conditions they can treat at home, and which require hospitalization, so it is possible that currently those with milder forms of the disease are not hospitalized. At the same time, it is possible that during the previous wave there were more elderly patients who needed hospital treatment, while now the younger ones dominate among those infected, says Delic, adding that this is only a guess and that for any safe conclusion it is necessary to know the clinical picture. the patients are hospitalized and what is the age structure of those infected.
What is almost certain, adds the interlocutor from Danas, is that the virus has not mutated, and that we cannot say that it is now accompanied by a milder clinical picture.
– There is no research to confirm that the virus has changed, so now its virulence is lower, that is, the clinical picture is milder. However, there is research on easier transmission of the virus. Initially it was said that an infected person could infect two or three people, while now it is said that the number can reach almost six. At the same time, a person who has the corona virus is known to be contagious to the environment for 11-12 days. Such a high reproduction rate with prolonged secretion of the virus are the two biggest problems there are, Delic says.
On the other hand, epidemiologist Zoran Radovanović believes that one of the main reasons why we now have more infected and less hospitalized compared to July lies in incorrect data.
– During the months of June and July, real data on the number of infected were hidden, since they were hidden at the beginning of the epidemic, as the BIRN showed in terms of the number of deaths. It seems that the data presented now is closer to the real situation, believes Radovanović. He considers that the number of patients will continue to grow in the coming weeks, and when asked if it is time for some kind of movement restriction, the Danas interlocutor replied that we must first start with intermediate steps such as additional restriction of cafes and restaurants, but also by punishing those who measure they do not respect.
– If a measure has already been approved as mandatory, then whoever does not respect it must be sanctioned. However, this does not appear to be the case for raft owners who are close to government structures. Furthermore, the work of catering facilities should be further limited, because the longer they work, the more likely it is that in a moment the guests will begin to behave more and more lewd and take less and less action. The excuse we hear these days that we do not have enough sanitary inspectors to control the implementation of the measures and that it is necessary to change the law so that other bodies can issue fines does not hold up. The epidemic has been going on for eight months and there was enough time to find ways to control the measures, Radovanović notes.
Infectious disease specialist Delic also notes that daily data on the number of infected people shows that the measures are not working.
– We lack an analysis of the current situation. With the measures that were taken, a dam was installed, but that dam is obviously leaking and we don’t know where. We do not know what are the problems in the preventive measures that such figures make possible. If we knew that, then we could introduce selective measures that would serve a purpose, Delic concludes.
Kon: In the next few days, a fifth in hospitals.
Regarding the current epidemiological situation, the member of the Crisis Staff, Predrag Kon, said yesterday that he expects the number of crowns infected with the virus in Serbia to reach 2,000 new daily cases in the coming days, of which 20 percent would have to be hospitalized. Speaking to TV Prva, he pointed out that the situation is more favorable because “younger people get sick”, but also that we should not deceive ourselves because “a milder clinical picture is just an impression.”
Infectious and full “Dragisa Misovic”
The Secretary of State of the Ministry of Health, Mirsad Đerlek, said yesterday that the capacities in the Infectious Diseases Clinic and the KBC “Dr. Dragiša Mišović” are 100 percent, and that 90 percent are full in “Bežanijska kosa “and about 50 percent in” Karaburma “. . Speaking to TV Prva, he also explained that there are more places in KBC “Zemun” and “Zvezdara”, which recently returned to the covid system. Djerlek also said that capacity in Novi Sad is about 40 percent, in Kragujevac about 45 percent, while in and around southern Serbia it is about 30 percent. “It is realistic to expect the number of infected people to increase in the next seven to 14 days, but we will do everything possible to avoid a collapse in the health care system,” Djerlek said.
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