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We have a time of year that affects the spread of the virus, colder weather, and increased indoor stays. If we do not pay attention to the key things and prevent the spread of the virus, we can make the epidemiological situation even worse, because according to the latest forecasts of the profession, the third wave could last until February, in the worst case until April.
And the figures are already worrying: yesterday we had 326 new infections in 24 hours, which is the highest number since the beginning of the third wave in Serbia. So we are slowly moving towards the top … By the way, prof. Dr. Petar Kocovic, an engineer who uses mathematical models to monitor the movement of the pandemic around the world and very accurately predicts the course of the epidemic in our country, expects the peak of this third wave around November 5, while around the 15th it is expected to begin to weaken. “We are not ruining anything.”
That it is obvious that he had an increase in the number of infected people, says Dr. Predrag Kon.
– Belgrade, Kragujevac and Valjevo got into that, but it is important that we slow down the broadcast in the next period. It’s a natural process and it just depends on our behavior by how much we slow it down, and it can take 12 to 16 weeks to slow down, said epidemiologist Dr. Predrag Kon.
So according to Kon’s forecast, the third wave of coronavirus will last until February, at best, and in order to slow the spread of the virus, it is especially important to be aware of these four important transmission factors.
1. Proximity
Any contact at a distance of less than one meter poses a risk of virus transmission, especially in the absence of protection.
If there is no possibility of distance, the mask is taken for granted, because these are the two main measures to prevent the spread of the virus, regardless of whether it is an open or closed space.
2. Contact length
It is not the same if you passed someone and combed your hair, or you were in their company for ten minutes. In the latter case, the risk is incomparably greater.
The more time we spend with someone who is infected, the more likely they are to get infected, and it has been known for a long time that there are many asymptomatic cases and we never know whether someone is infected or not.
That is why we must be careful during every meeting.
3. Crowd
Movement in the mass of people, especially in closed places, significantly increases the risk of infection, even in the case of distance.
Waiting in lines or at bus stops, moving through pedestrian areas and absolutely anywhere where there is a higher concentration of people represents a risk of infection.
The more people, the greater the probability of transmitting and infecting the corona with the virus.
4. Forced actions
There is a justified reason for the prohibition of sports events, concerts and other events where large numbers of people are already present.
Talking, shouting, singing, cheering, arguing, as well as any form of action related to uncontrolled reactions, also help the virus to be transmitted over a distance of more than one meter.
She also confirmed the WHO
Previously, scientists from the World Health Organization determined the risk factors according to which the transmission of the virus is possible even at a greater distance.
The coronavirus is certainly transmitted by droplets, and certain groups of scientists believe that it can be transmitted from person to person and in aerosol form, through the air. Both agree that in both cases the distance at which the virus is transmitted does not exceed one meter.
However, a group of 239 scientists in a letter to the World Health Organization put forward the theory that the virus can be transmitted further, in the case of so-called forced actions, such as coughing, sneezing, screaming or singing.
– It has been determined that under normal conditions, the corona virus can be transmitted up to a distance of one meter. However, this research did not take into account the extreme situations in which the virus can be transmitted over a greater distance. I am convinced that if you investigated in a choir where everyone sings, that if there were an infected person, the virus could cross a path of more than one meter and infect another human body – explained Donald Milton, professor at the University of Maryland and another of the signatory of the letter sent to WHO.
Profession in 4 key factors
Commenting on this knowledge, our experts, “Blic” interlocutors, explained that there are four main risk factors for corona transmission: proximity, crowding, duration of contact, and forced action. Forced action represents a specific risk, because it includes actions that help the virus to cross a distance of one meter, such as coughing, sneezing, singing in a choir, cheering at soccer games, talking loudly during a meal in a restaurant, arguing and shouting … Of course, the risk increases if there is no mutual protection of the mask.
The epidemiologist Dr. Sonja Novak previously explained to “Blic” that the crown is there and that it requires us to adapt to it by changing our behavior, and that there are four risk assessment parameters, and that the risk increases in relation to where we are, if we are in open or closed space.
– The type of risk we are in depends on whether we are in a cafeteria, restaurant, bar, disco or we are outdoors, sitting with friends in the garden of a cafeteria one meter away. It is this space that defines our risk. Each of us should, over the next year or as long as it takes, think about the risks to which we are exposed. The second parameter is the duration of the interaction with a person, so if someone is at potential risk, if they are in contact with someone for more than ten minutes, that person must have a mask. The third parameter is the crowd, we must avoid the crowd whether we are indoors or outdoors, explains Dr. Novak.
As epidemiologists advise, we must avoid crowds and do not forget that the concentration of the virus inside is high, which is why they insist on wearing masks and keeping their distance.
– It does not matter if someone who is infected has just passed you or if you sat with him less than a meter and spoke, because the fourth parameter is speech. Forced actions, screaming, singing and, of course, sneezing and coughing that can occur during a conversation are risky. We have it in stadiums, but also in concerts, so leaving is potentially risky, if there is no measure of distance and protection. Masks, disinfection, distance, we have to learn to live with that in the next period – explains Dr. Novak.
Epidemiologist prof. Dr. Branislav Tiodorović, a member of the Covid 19 Infectious Disease Suppression Crisis Team, recently told “Blic” that science is always learning and learning new things, which is why the same goes for the corona virus.
– What we know is that it is transmitted by droplets, so if you talk to an infected person who does not have a mask and who is close to you, you can get it, no matter where you are. That is why the measures are in force, which imply that a mask is worn and a distance of one and a half meters is maintained – Dr. Tiodorović previously explained.
Apocalyptic scene
The director of the Kragujevac Clinical Center, Dr. Predrag Sazdanović, also warned of how bad the epidemiological situation awaits us in the next period if all measures are not respected.
He explained how the situation would develop if “we don’t think about it.”
– Imagine a situation that today is November 15 and that Serbia breaks all daily records in the number of new infected and that you must celebrate your glory, says Arandjelovdan, and you do not have time to call, because everyone you know is infected or in intensive care – Sazdanovic told RTS.
He noted that he quotes this apocalyptic version, because it can happen in 15-20 days.
– If today we are not smart, if today we do not wear masks, we are not careful and avoid illegal meetings, we do not keep our distance and we do not wash our hands, then it will happen that we will not have time to call for our celebrations, because there will be massive contagion and there will be many sick – added Sazdanović.
In order not to have black predictions and an apocalyptic scenario waiting for us, it is time to start applying absolutely all the measures, as well as to respect the recommendations because the virus can only be defeated with iron discipline.
VIDEO: How is a cough spread with a mask and without a mask
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