Vučić’s “hot potato” for Dačić – Demostat

Vučić and Dačić Photo: FoNet / Nenad Đorđević (archive)

Such a move surprised not only leading experts on the political scene, but also representatives of diplomatic circles who claimed in the previous two months that Dacic would remain in office even after the (finally) formed Government of the new former Prime Minister Ana Brnabic . It is speculated that Socialist officials were almost ready to “put their hands on the fire” that their boss would still be working on Nemanjina 11.

That the “banknote division” could be different could be seen when Vučić, the “brain” of the composition and the new convocation of the executive branch, decided to omit Dačić from the passenger list for a meeting with the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Avdulah Hoti, at the White House, organized by the President’s envoy. United States of Donald Trump for the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, Richard Grenell, where Trump personally appeared.

On that occasion, as is well known, an agreement was signed on the normalization of economic relations between Belgrade and Pristina, and the Belgrade delegation led by the president pledged to fulfill Trump’s wish to move the Serbian embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. bureaucratically called “energy diversification”, that is, reducing Russia’s energy dependence.

At the same time, a “gentlemen’s agreement” was reached for Belgrade to suspend lobbying on the world stage for one year to withdraw recognition of Kosovo and for Pristina not to attempt to join international organizations in the same period. Rather than being a guest in the White House according to his role, Dacic followed such an event as a guest on a special program on Serbian Radio-Television and, unsurprisingly, praised the achievements of the meeting.

At the time, he seemed calm, but he probably had a lump in his throat, as it was he who with undisguised pride in the last year and a half informed the public how much the state withdrew recognition of Kosovo. He certainly didn’t like hearing that the influential state of Israel would establish diplomatic ties with Pristina, nor the mention of “energy diversification” because he never hid that the Russians were close to his heart.

ABSENCE OF STUDENTS AND POISON ARROWS

The head of diplomacy was not among the guests at the dinner organized on the ship “Yacht Club Kay” in Belgrade, which was prepared by Aleksandar Vučić at the end of September, for the delegation led by Grenel, and which included Adam Bohler, CEO of the American Development Finance Corporation. DFC). As in the case of the meeting at the White House, Dacic was at the time in the RTS studio, commenting on the importance of the American visit.

According to Demostat sources, he did not join Vučić or his great guests even after the show. Ivica Dacic’s notorious absence from the aforementioned events was accompanied by the equally conspicuous presence of the former head of the Government Office for Kosovo and Metohija, Marko Đurić, which spurred speculation that he would replace the socialist leader at the head of the Foreign Ministry. , but it soon turned out he received a “lucrative place” – Serbian ambassador in Washington.

Until Aleksandar Vučić’s famous announcement that Dačić would become the head of parliament, the pro-regime tabloids, according to the already established post-election tradition, sent “poison arrows” at the expense of the socialist president, but fell silent when the Serbian president confirmed that the SPS remained a desirable partner. , also, already seen.

Ordinary citizens and the “professional public” generally interpreted Dacic’s latest performance as his demotion. Humorous photomontages also appeared on social media, where he was shown singing the White Button song “I agreed to be whatever I wanted” behind the speaker of the assembly, a clear allusion to the fact that he was completely subordinate to the will of the progressive leader. Dacic, who was Minister of Police, Prime Minister and later Head of Diplomacy, after “ruling” in the Assembly, became “cook in the Assembly restaurant”.

According to one of the theories, Dacic sacrificed himself “moving” to the National Assembly, to keep his party colleague Branko Ruzic in the ministerial position. Proponents of such a claim say that it was clear from the start that Vučić did not want to cede more than two ministerial posts to the Socialists, so the head of the Socialists, “for the sake of peace abroad,” left Ružić to stay in the Government, together with the socialist Aleksandar Antić. The Bazaar’s stories of the Ruzic-Dacic rivalry have been “around” for a long time, culminating a few years ago when it was speculated that Ruzic wanted to “wrest” the helm of the SPS from Dacic. It remains to be seen if Branko Ruzic will really remain in Nemanjina 11 and if he will continue to head the Ministry of State Administration and Local Self-Government, or will be assigned another department, because the final decision on the candidates for ministers will be made on Sunday, October 25, when the Presidency of the Progressives meets again.

THE VICTORY OF THE PIR AND THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Strictly formally speaking, Ivica Dačić is not wrong when he says that the position of President of the National Assembly is the highest function he has ever held. In parliamentary democracies, obtaining such a portfolio is seen as a reward and recognition for “past work” because it is the highest legislative chamber.

But what ruins Dacic’s happiness in the eyes of the public (especially analysts) is the fact that both the Government and the Assembly in the current constellation of forces in Serbia are largely subordinate to Aleksandar Vucic, despite the official division into three “branches” of power. By procrastinating with the election of new state officials since the June elections, the president of Serbia seemed to want to show that the state can function without a parliament.

At the same time, Vučić managed to shorten the mandate of the incoming, concentrated government, and the current convocation of the Assembly, in which there is practically no opposition, making the parliament problematic in the eyes of the European Union. Seen through that prism, Dacic will be remembered as one of the few heads of parliaments in Europe “deprived” of the opposition. Therefore, the overwhelming victory of the progressives in the elections can also be called Pirovo, of which Vučić himself is aware, which is why he decided that the deadline for the early parliamentary elections will be April 3, 2022, when citizens will likely vote for the head of state. Demostat sources point out that such an announcement does not exclude the possibility that the vote for the new convocation of the parliament and for the president of the state will be organized “in a year”, that is, in the autumn of 2021.

The theory that the next “race” for the president of Serbia motivated Aleksandar Vučić to entrust the post of head of parliament to Ivica Dačić can be heard in diplomatic circles. Vučić, it is claimed, wholeheartedly wants to get another term in that position, so he needs Dačić as an ally, and he seriously has the support of the leader of the Serbian Patriotic Alliance, Aleksandar Šapić. But, considering Vučić’s already mentioned reputation as a “master of surprises”, the possibility that he may decide to move from the presidential seat to that of prime minister (in which he was already sitting comfortably) is not excluded, which it would mean that Dačić gets the status of acting president. From Serbia. This would make him the second Socialist in the position of interim head of state, after Slavica Đukić Dejanović, who by Boris Tadić’s decision to call early presidential elections in the spring of 2012, along with parliamentary elections (the life error of Tadić, many believe), automatically became interim president of the state. Such a move by Vučić, Demostat sources emphasize, should not be experienced as an “act of mercy” towards Dačić, but as a “rolling hot potatoes.”

The chances that this scenario will come true (“who would say that miracles happen”, read the verses of “Miljacka”, which Dacic likes to sing) would increase, according to the diplomat, if Belgrade signs the agreement with Pristina, especially Recognition of Kosovo, because the current president of Serbia would do everything possible to avoid having his name appear on the paper that will bring him negative points in the electorate, but would rather “leave” Ivica Dacic as a signatory.

It is also believed that the epilogue to the Kosovo drama and the outcome of the situation on the Serbian political scene will largely depend on the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. “One song will be sung in Serbia if the current president, the Republican Trump, wins, and the other if the new president becomes the Democrat Joseph Biden,” say representatives of diplomatic circles. As our interlocutors point out, Serbia is not expected to abandon the policy of balance between Russia and the West “overnight” and repeal the principle of military neutrality, but it is believed that in the event that Trump remains a “resident of the White House, “Belgrade will try closer to Washington, that is, away from Russia, which, it is claimed,” is constantly losing influence in this region. “

“Trump’s victory would be favorable for solving the Serbian problem in the Balkans, because his administration does not strictly adhere to the principle that borders cannot be changed, which represents an opportunity for the Kosovo problem to be resolved by division, defended by the Serbian authorities. ” “On the other hand, if Biden becomes president, the issue of Kosovo will go back to the hands of the EU, that is, Germany, which opposes any demarcation,” the diplomats explain.

Joseph Biden’s victory would also affect the course of the next phase of dialogue between the government and the opposition in Serbia on improving electoral conditions, which should start soon, it is again believed with the mediation of the European Parliament. Demostat sources agree that Vučić, announcing the creation of the Ministry of Human Rights, Gender Equality and Social Dialogue, said that, to some extent, he was willing to provide an “olive branch” to the opposition, so that the as many opposition parties as possible will participate in the next elections. thus giving international legitimacy to a parliament that will be elected in late 2021 or early 2022.

Diplomats point out that Biden’s “immigration” to the White House would force the president of Serbia to make even greater concessions to the opposition, because the administration headed by Joseph Biden would “firmly agree” on this issue with the European Union, that is , Germany, which insists to a greater degree. democracy. This insistence can be seen in the example of the “slowing down” of Serbia’s path to the EU, due to Berlin’s discontent with Belgrade’s insufficient progress in implementing reforms, including tasks in the field of the rule of law.

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