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First, the good news: this year, retailers in Germany are likely to have higher turnover on special days like Black Friday and Cyber Monday than last year (see chart). At least that’s what the HDE Retail Association is hoping, referring to a survey conducted among potential buyers by the Cologne Institute for Commercial Research.
And the bad news is that merchants who are especially vulnerable due to restrictive measures will have nothing to do with it. Stores in city centers these days and weeks earn especially little, because customers do not come to city centers because of the crown and shop online.
“We see with great concern that companies that have not been digitized. “They are going through a much tougher pandemic than those with fixed and online businesses,” Stefan Tromp of the Retail Alliance told DW.
According to HDE, retail stores in city centers posted a third lower turnover in the third week of November than in the same period last year. In clothing and shoe stores, the downside was as high as 40 percent.
The expected increase in traffic around “Black Friday” can be achieved only if e-commerce grows above average.
“Black Friday is traditionally an online shopping day in Germany,” says Trump. “It’s true that, meanwhile, many stationary ‘Black Friday’ traders give special discounts to their clients, but the vast majority of purchases are made online.”
“Black Friday” in the United States is called the Friday after Thanksgiving, which is celebrated on the last Thursday in November. Anyone who takes Friday off has a long weekend ahead of them and often uses it for shopping. As early as the 1960s, shopping malls were full that day: people “blackened” them. However, it is not known whether the term “Black Friday” comes from that or from the term to write positive results in accounting (negative ones are written in red), it is not known.
Turnover for “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday” from 2016 to 2020 (forecast) in billions of euros Turnover for “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday” from 2016 to 2020 (forecast) in billions of euros
The day has been marketed to the world only since the 2000s, especially through American companies like Apple and Amazon. At that time the term “Cyber Monday” was coined, promising special discounts for the following Monday.
Since then, the boundaries between individual “shopping vacations” have been increasingly changing. Meanwhile, there is a whole “Black Week”, but also a “Cyber Week”, and the German retail chain Mediamarkt / Saturn even uses the term “Black November”.
Meanwhile, many traders have introduced “Black Friday in July”. Then they promise even bigger discounts than in November, all so that customers won’t be left with Amazon without a fight. And that online shopping giant has been running its own discount campaigns called “Prime Day” since 2015 in the same month.
All of this is even more pronounced among the Chinese. On “Singles Day”, which is celebrated on November 11 and supposedly brings good luck, Chinese Internet merchants like “Alibaba” achieve record turnover every year that dwarfs even “Black Friday.” The day became popular on the Internet in other Asian countries and has yet to become established in Europe.
Merchants are restricted
Traders asked by DW about “Black Friday” expectations are fairly subdued. “Amazon” announced that in principle “never publishes traffic forecasts”, and did not say anything about the scope of the special offers.
It is similar with the “Mediamarkt / Saturn” retail chain. One of their spokesmen pointed out that “in the hot phase of the Black Moon,” they still have little time for journalistic questions.
Calando does not give figures either. However, this large online clothing and footwear retailer primarily announced that “Cyber Week,” including “Black Friday,” has become a “major growth engine.” In addition, they say, the discount action “is an important opportunity to strengthen relationships with our customers and offer additional sales opportunities to our partners.”
Market researchers are not unanimous in their assessment of how customers will react to special offers. While the Association of Retailers and the marketing agency “Gall” expect a growth of the turnover of between 16 and 18 percent, the consultancy “Simon Kucher & Partners” is more cautious. They believe that there will be fewer customers buying on “Black Friday” and that they will have less money at their disposal, an average of 205 euros, compared to 242 euros last year.
Everyone agrees that the money will be spent primarily through the Internet. Additionally, HDE’s Trump believes that “Black Friday” and “Cyber Monday” should not be viewed in isolation from Christmas traffic. “More than 50 percent of consumers who buy something for ‘Black Friday’ intend to donate that product for Christmas.”
Kurir.rs/DW
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