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The New York Times calls him the “Nostradamus of the Presidential Election,” and that reputation was confirmed in 2016, when, despite the fact that almost all polls predicted Hillary Clinton’s victory, it again correctly predicted that the winner would be Donald Trump. After the victory, Trump himself congratulated him on the correct forecast.
Unlike other historians who deal exclusively with the past, Lichtman decided to apply his knowledge of political trends to predict the future, in the model he developed with the Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.
He did so, he says, because he concluded that classic pre-election forecasts are based on faulty assumptions.
“Analysts are monitoring the election as if it were a horse race. But history tells us that voters are not fooled by the tricks of the election campaign. Voters vote pragmatically, depending on how well the White House is. has ruled the country, “explains Lichtman, adding that the polls are mere” clips in time. ” “and they do not influence the outcome of the elections itself.
She put together her model “The Keys to the White House” with Keilis-Borok when she met him in 1981.
“Volodya turned to me and said ‘we will cooperate’. At the time, I thought this guy was either crazy or a KGB man,” says Lichtman. However, when he was convinced that he was not, he began to cooperate with him, combining history and seismology.
“We reformulated the US presidential election as a stability (dichotomy), in which the guy who has the White House stays in the White House, and an earthquake, where the White House party loses power,” he said Lichtman.
13 “keys” to victory
He and Keilis-Borok reviewed all the presidential elections from 1860 to 1980 and identified 13 factors or “keys” on which the victory of the president or the ruling party candidate depends, if the president has already served two terms in the elections. What are they:
1. Win the “midterm” elections (Congressional elections held mid-term)
2. No opponents from your own group
3. The candidate is the current president seeking a second term.
4. There is no relevant third party candidate
5. Good state of the economy in the short term
6. Good long-term state of the economy (at least as good as in the last two periods)
7. Major policy changes
8. There was no major scandal.
9. There were no foreign or military failures
10. There has been great success abroad or in the military
11. There were no social unrest
12. The president is charismatic
13. The president’s opponent is not charismatic
As can be seen, only the last two of these 13 factors are directly related to the candidates themselves and their characteristics.
Using this model, Lichtman predicted that Republican Ronald Reagan would win again in 1984, two years earlier, when his Democratic opponent, Walter Mondale, had not even been nominated. In the spring of 1988, he predicted that George W. Bush would defeat Michael Dukakis, although Dukakis was leading the polls at the time. He also predicted two consecutive victories for Bill Clinton.
And then he predicted Al Gore’s victory over Bush Jr., which should be counted as a mistake, not a single detail.
“He was right. I correctly predicted that Al Gore would get the absolute number of votes,” Lichtman said, adding, “When I first developed the system in 1981, the last time the absolute number of votes and the result was electoral votes. (by federal states) they separated in 1888 “.
There is also the fact that the Democrats demanded a vote recount in Florida, which the Supreme Court eventually postponed and declared Bush’s victory, which is why some still consider the result of these elections illegitimate.
That is why Lichtman began to predict the winner by electoral votes going forward, and not by absolute number of votes, and he was correct again in every upcoming election, including Trump’s victory.
Lichtman, a Democrat who unsuccessfully ran for senator in 2006, correctly predicted in 2017 that a recall would be voted against Trump. Furthermore, in the same year, he himself published a book entitled “The Prosecution Case,” in which he laid out the reasons why Trump should have been called even then, in the first year of his term.
What do you predict now?
The key to their predictions is actually very simple: if the answer to 6 or more of the 13 questions above is negative, the current president or candidate of the ruling party loses the election.
Prediction: 7 keys for Biden, 6 for Trump. Biden wins
In the case of these elections, the result is the following:
1. Win the “midterm” elections: NO
2. There are no opponents from your own group – YES
3. The candidate is the current president seeking a second term – YES
4. No relevant third party candidate – YES
5. Good state of the economy in the short term – NO
6. Good state of the long-term economy – NO
7. Major policy changes: YES
8. There was no big scandal – NO
9. There was no great military failure – YES
10. There has been great success abroad or in the military – NO
11. There were no social disturbances – NO
12. The president is charismatic – NO
13. The president’s opponent is not charismatic – YES
The result is, therefore, 6 factors for Trump and 7 for Biden. That means Trump will lose the election.
However, this professor warns that there are other factors that can affect the elections, which his model does not include: the suppression of the right to vote and foreign interference – specifically Russian – in the elections, and there is the possibility that Trump will not admit losses electoral. , accusing Biden and the Democrats of stealing elections through vote-by-mail.
Therefore, these elections will be uncertain and potentially very dangerous, regardless of the forecast.
Kurir.rs/Index.hr
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