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Prof. Dr. Petar Kočović, who has been following the development of the coronavirus in our country for months through a mathematical model, has worried many with new statistical forecasts. According to their data, for now, the third wave is stronger than the second by up to a quarter.
Kocovic published data for the period from day 37 to day 41 of the third wave of the epidemic, that is, from October 20 to 24. For each day of that period, the professor also indicated how much the number of infected people increased in this third wave compared to the second wave.
On the first day of that period, the percentage increased by five percent, then gradually rose and in almost four days it reached 25 percent.
Along with these statistical data, Petar Kočović also compared his predictions and thus gave an idea of whether he was right or if he made a “mistake”. In his predictions, he deviated from the real situation in two days using a mathematical model by at least one and a half percent. And that was on October 20, when his model assumed that there would be 1.5% more infected than there were actually that day. The model was also withdrawn the next day because Kočović predicted that there would be one and a half percent less infected than there actually was on October 22. The next two days the mathematical model predicted absolutely correctly.
Most surprising, but also best illustrated by the fact that the new virus is unpredictable, is the fact that the third wave on its 41st day reached greater potency than could have been assumed.
On that crucial day 41, the third wave had infected more than the second wave in a quarter, but it also deviated from the mathematical model of prof. Dr. Kocovic by up to 13 percent! Which means that even prof. Kocovic and mathematics did not expect such a large number of infected people.
Let us remind you, on October 24, all black records were broken regarding the number of infected people in Serbia since the beginning of the epidemic. That day, up to 757 cases were registered, and most of them occurred in Belgrade, 433.
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