To finally stop coronavirus pandemic, which claimed more than 1.4 million lives worldwide in less than a year, it is necessary to vaccinate 75 to 80 percent of the world’s population. This, if production and distribution capacities are strengthened in the world, could happen in about 400 days after the invention of the vaccine.
On the other hand, healthcare workers around the world, people over 65 and other vulnerable categories of the population could be protected from kovid 19 within 200 days of the vaccine. These are the results of the research published on the Statista portal, which deals with the analysis of statistical data, and predicted three global immunization scenarios after the registration of the first vaccine.
– On average, 3,600 million doses of vaccines against viral infections are produced annually worldwide. The maximum production capacity is estimated at 6.4 billion doses. Although theoretically this could be enough to create herd immunity in a year, more than half of the capacity has been allocated to the production of other vaccines, says this portal.
Find and register an effective and safe vaccine against kovida it is only part of the problem the world will face. The mass production of vaccines, distribution and administrative regulation are just some of the challenges that await the world, and according to the “worst” scenario of this research, if production continues with the available capacities, with all the existing limitations in the vaccine supply chain, 1.7 billion doses of vaccine could be produced in one year. It would take more than two years to create a herd immunity.
In the best, but also the most unrealistic scenario, 5.9 billion doses could be distributed in a year, but that would mean “greatly increased production”, that is, a large part of the capacity produced by other vaccines would be redirected to the production. COVID-19 vaccine.
– While this scenario is possible, it seems the most incredible, because it would require production capacities to be withdrawn from the manufacture of other vaccines. It would imply that the population in the world is fully willing to be vaccinated, and it would also require the strengthening of distribution channels, says the research.
The most realistic scenario is that according to which, one year after the appearance of the vaccine, with partially increased production, 2.8 billion doses of vaccines will be distributed annually, and the immunity of the herd will be achieved in about 400 days. All scenarios foresee a sufficient dose of vaccines to vaccinate the most vulnerable groups.
photo: Tanjug screenshot
Verica Jovanovic, director of the Trampoline Institute, said that the immunization of the population in Serbia would be extraordinary and recommended:
– First of all, health workers are vaccinated, but at the same time, the elderly population.
Scenario 1
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With the existing capacities in the world, 1.7 billion doses of vaccines could be produced in 365 days, and we would approach the immunity of the herd in just over two years.
Scenario 2
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With slightly larger production capacity and a distribution chain, 2.8 billion doses could be distributed in one year and herd immunity could be achieved in more than 400 days.
Scenario 3
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With highly intensified production and new distribution logistics, 5.9 billion doses of vaccines would be distributed in one year and herd immunity would be achieved.
Obtaining
Serbia has provided 1.8 million doses
Serbia signed a contract with “Pfizer” for the purchase of 350,000 doses of vaccine vaccines, while President Aleksandar Vučić said the state provided 1.8 million doses of vaccines for this and the entire following year through the Covax system. In addition to the American company “Pfizer”, yesterday the Chinese company “Sinofarm” presented the license application to market its covid-19 vaccines.
Dr. Ana Gligić
Kovid disappears at the end of 2021.
photo: Nebojsa Mandic
Virologist Dr. Ana Gligić says for Kurir that it is necessary to vaccinate at least about 60 percent of people in the world to obtain herd immunity, and it is necessary to provide them with a revaccination.
– We can get rid of the crown in three ways: for the crown to eat itself, then for infection, which is already happening a lot, and vaccination. If we combine all of that, we should get rid of the crown globally by the end of next year, he says, adding that it is a huge challenge to provide so many vaccines.
Kurir.rs/ Ružica Kantar Photo: EPA / Andrea Canali
