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Serbia, in general, has adopted the most generous and comprehensive economic package among the Western Balkan economies, providing almost universal support to both businesses and citizens, the International Labor Organization (ILO) and the EBRD have just announced.
In the ILO and EBRDA report ‘COVID-19 and employment’, the approach taken by Serbia was characterized by being more inclined to the so-called “inclusion errors”, that is, providing assistance to those who do not really need it ( “winners”), but “exclusion errors”, that is, not providing assistance to those who need it (“losers”).
According to this model, measures to preserve employment (through direct support and deferral of tax obligations) reduce the poverty rate by 1.2 percentage points in all age groups, but it is still at half the rate. poverty level it had before the crisis.
When an aid measure of € 100 is added to the mix, the effect of the combined measures against poverty is extremely strong, reducing “the relative poverty rate to 22.9 percent, below pre-crisis levels. “, according to a summary of ILO and EBRD reports. about Serbia.
It is further noted that this model shows that with the combined effects of measures to preserve employment and one-time financial aid for all adult citizens, Serbia succeeded in “slowing the spread of poverty, while only financial aid succeeded in reducing the coefficient of Gini at a full point. “
In terms of working hours, the report indicates that with the applied model, the working hours in the second quarter of 2020 decreased by 14.8 percent, which is equivalent to 510,000 full-time jobs.
If the health crisis continues and job retention programs decline, there is a high risk that people will be pushed into the category of unemployment and inactivity.
Regarding risk by sectors, it is noted that in the coming months, according to the analysis, the most vulnerable in terms of employment are workers in eight sectors: wholesale and retail trade, accommodation, transport, food and beverages, services, forestry and logging and agricultural and livestock production.
According to estimates, nearly 700,000 people in these sectors are at immediate risk of losing their jobs, which are, as explained by those who work in jobs characterized by informality and job insecurity, self-employed or workers in micro-enterprises.
The ILO and EBRD note in the report that there are no significant vulnerabilities in Serbia in terms of characteristics related to gender equality.
According to this report, micro-enterprises are the most affected by the current health crisis and do not have sufficient access to funds to support recovery.
Despite that, with the exception of micro-enterprises operating in the textile, transport and tourism sectors, companies in Serbia in general have managed to reduce layoffs below 9.0 percent, according to the ILO and the EBRD.
(Kurir.rs/Tanjug)
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