The crown will last until July! Professor Petar Kočović accurately calculated the end of the epidemic

Information Technology Professor Petar Kocovic and his team since the beginning of the pandemic they accurately calculated the infection flux around the world and especially in Serbia. Now, they say, the end of the coronavirus epidemic in Serbia could be expected in the period from May 5 to July 20 of next year.

Based on experiences from previous epidemics, statistical methods, and a mathematical model, the course and end of the epidemic can be predicted.

Nosite li maske?

– That does not mean that the virus will disappear in our country between May 5 and July 20, but that the number of infected will be much lower than now. In the meantime, the situation will not change drastically even if a corona vaccine is found, says Professor Kočović.

The expert emphasizes that such forecasts may be partially inaccurate because they refer to a longer period of time. Furthermore, corona is, as experience so far has shown, a very unpredictable virus.

– What I can definitely talk about is the third wave, which we are in now. We can expect the peak of this wave in seven to ten days, that is, sometime in early November, when the number of infected people will increase to 50 per 100,000 inhabitants. According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), we are currently on the edge of the red zone with 30 infected per 100,000 inhabitants. If the measurements are not followed, we can easily slip into the purple zone. I hope the third wave can end after the New Year, when we will immediately enter the fourth, says Professor Kocovic.

He calculated the peak and end of a wave using the Gaussian curve. He bases his forecasts on data collected for Serbia, which is published daily by the “Trampoline” Institute, and only the number of infected people is counted.

– The waves are very important so that the whole nation can catch its breath. For example, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania and even Russia are still in the first wave. What does the break between the waves mean? This is the period when the number of infected people is reduced, so we can behave more relaxed, explains Kočović for the Serbian Telegraph.

Professor Kočović points out that he does not expect a complete lockdown at the state level, as in the spring, but that there will be isolation of certain areas and cities.

– Europe was not prepared for the corona epidemic, there were no masks or disinfectants, so the blockade was the only way to prevent a massive infection. Now the situation is completely different, but I think that certain parts of the country or cities will be blocked from time to time. During the summer, everyone cried because they could not travel, and now we see how well he was, otherwise we would be in a situation like the Czech Republic now, where an epidemic is raging – he said.