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The coronavirus in our country is not calming down, and according to all projections, both epidemiological and mathematical, difficult days are ahead, as much as it sounds to us that it is impossible to be even worse.
So very quickly at this rate we could reach up to 10,000 confirmed cases per day, which would multiply by 10, as many as asymptomatic, we reached a black bill: 100,000 people a day could be positive for the corona virus!
Our experts are not optimistic either. The curve certainly won’t go downhill, so based on calculations for the next few days, we could sadly expect up to 10,000 a day. This is clearly shown in the crisis staff members’ explanations why the culprit could still explode.
– The curve continues to grow and to slow growth it is important to respect the measures. We have always advocated for stricter measures, even before they were introduced. But I must point out that they have existed all the time and those that we had in force before protected us to the extent that they were implemented – said Dr. Srdja Jankovic yesterday.
Epidemiologist Predrag Kon also gave black forecasts on the number of deaths yesterday, and we also heard from him previously that a triple-digit number of deaths is expected for the crown in the coming days.
– The number of newly infected increased from 6,840 to more than 7,500, representing an increase of more than 10 percent per day. If we know that the current death rate is around one percent, then it is clear that of those 7,500 people, 75 will end tragically. So, in the future, we expect an increase in the number of deaths ”- stated Dr. Kon a few days ago.
When we apply this calculation to the projection that we will have up to 10,000 infected, we conclude that we will have a triple digit death toll, or more than 100.
Yesterday, we crossed 50 deaths in one day, and exactly those predictions were made a few days ago by Dr. Kon and the head of the WHO in Belgrade, Marijan Ivanuša.
That the situation with the number of infected will not calm down is also shown by the latest mathematical forecasts, which until now have proven to be correct.
Therefore, prof. Dr. Petar Kocovic, known for his graphs and projections, which proved to be accurate.
Up to 10,000 infected a day by the middle of next month
That is, in the last graphic of prof. Dr. Kočović, it is noted that we could expect the number of 10,000 infected per day in the middle of next month.
So, based on this expert’s assessment, it could follow the peak of this third wave.
However, it is not only the dramatic number of 10,000 infected in one day that is concerning, but the numbers that we cannot detect through tests and that refer to asymptomatic patients.
That such statements are a fact is confirmed by all members of the Crisis Staff who in the previous period only said that there are many more infected, even 10 times more than the number we see every day at 3 pm
Thus, epidemiologist Dr. Predrag Kon recently said that the current epidemiological situation in the capital is such that there are 10 times more infected than the figures say, and that Belgrade will be the place from where the virus will spread to other countries.
– The number of cases must be multiplied by 10. There are many asymptomatic – said Dr. Predrag Kon a few days ago.
It is also clear why.
– Surveys of the infected population carried out in Western European countries, how many people have antibodies because they have passed the crown, have shown that the number of infected is 10 to 20 times higher than the number that is officially registered. By such analogy, if you have an average of 1,000 infected a day, then you have around 10,000 to 20,000 a day that are contagious without even knowing it. It must be said that little by little they stop being contagious after a week to ten days, after 14 days, of course, so that number cannot simply be added – explained Dr. Kon.
More deaths?
With a greater number of infected people, a greater number of deaths occurs. This is confirmed by yesterday’s figures, according to which 51 people died in 24 hours!
The forecasts of our experts go further, so the epidemiologist Predrag Kon stated that the number of deaths could be in the triple digits.
– The number of deaths will increase and that is completely mathematically clear. We will see that in the next few weeks and that number may be in the triple digits – he said in the inclusion on the morning TV show Prva Kon.
The number of patients on a ventilator was a record yesterday and amounted to 243, and the number of hospitalized is growing dramatically by the day, so there are currently up to 6,722 people in the hospital, which is the most so far!
If we take into account that the mortality of this virus in our country is currently 0.99 percent, we arrive at a black number by a simple calculation, so that in the next few days, unfortunately we could have about 100 deaths in one day!
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