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Records in the number of new infected with the corona virus in Serbia are falling day by day, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) our country is currently in the dark purple zone, the sixth from nine degrees kovida-19, hospitals are very fast full, the number of deaths is growing, as well as the number of patients on ventilators, but all the experts are united in their assessment: the worst is yet to come!
That this week, in Belgrade alone, we will probably have more than 2000 infected in 24 hours, announced a member of the crisis staff, Dr. Predrag Kon, and prof. Petar Kočović, who uses mathematical models and formulas to monitor the movement of the coronavirus epidemic around the world.
As you can see from the last graph, Serbia will soon be very close to 200 infected per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, and the main hit in this third wave could be in four or five days, so at the end of this week!
However, no matter how alarming this may sound, there are good things in the forecast. That is, if the calculation is met, around November 10, there could be a slight drop in the number of new infections. Let us remind you, previous forecasts announced that the peak of this third wave could be reached in the period between 5 and 20 November …
Prof. Kocovic very vividly portrayed the similarities and differences between the three corona waves that hit Serbia. The first, spring, lasted 82 days, we had 11,227 infected and 239 deaths. The second summer lasted 110 days, 21,181 cases were registered and 494 people died.
Finally, over the course of the third wave so far, which has lasted 50 days, we have recorded 16,797 patients and 100 deaths. And with 184 infected people per 100,000 inhabitants, Serbia is almost two and a half times more than the world average.
How do the calculations work?
– My five-member team of mathematicians and programmers monitors the situation in all 216 countries on a daily basis. We use the Gauss curve (a mathematical model based on the work of the famous German mathematician and physicist Johann Karl Friedrich Gauss) that moves daily. The methodology is unique and based on multiple waves, Kočović explained previously for “Blic.”
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