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Just when we expected that this week we would hit the main blow of the third wave, and that by the end of November the number of new infected should start to stagnate and then decline, new, much more pessimistic forecasts are coming in from all sides!
The Secretary of State of the Ministry of Health, Mirsad Đerlek, announced that a new jump in the number of patients with coronavirus is expected in the next seven days, and this is confirmed by his mathematical forecasts and prof. Petar Kocovic.
That is, although the initial predictions said that the peak of the third wave would be only in these days, in mid-November, and that we would stay in the range of 300-500 infected per 100,000 citizens, the new data seems quite sinister! and shocking!
Mathematical calculations predict a further significant growth of new infected at least in the next ten days, and it almost doubles to the limit of 1,000 infected per 100,000 people!
In translation, this would mean that on average for 14 days, according to the parameters of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), we have 5,000 people infected daily, so it is certain that there will be days when we exceed the limit of 6,000-7,000 new cases. 24 hours!
“We take every opportunity to get out. It’s like waiting for a plane at the airport, and the screen says it’s late, so a new landing time appears … The peak has moved to December 9, 2020, that it’s St. Olympia the Stylite. ” .. We’ll see, “he wrote on the Facebook page of prof. Kocovic.
Yesterday, Serbia entered the penultimate zone of dark gray crown with 517 infected people per 100,000 inhabitants, in which countries with 500 to 1,000 infected people per 100,000 inhabitants, and if the forecasts of prof. Kocovic and his team, at the end of the month we could hit the black zone!
And if you don’t have enough bad news, after the end of the third wave, the fourth awaits us! By current estimates, maybe mid-February.
How do the calculations work?
– My five-member team of mathematicians and programmers monitors the situation in all 216 countries on a daily basis. We use the Gauss curve (a mathematical model based on the work of the famous German mathematician and physicist Johann Karl Friedrich Gauss) that moves daily. The methodology is unique and based on multiple waves, Kočović explained previously for “Blic.”
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