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The chaos of Corona knocked on Serbia’s door. And while day by day we are registering black records in the number of infected, many wonder when the curve could go downhill. Unfortunately, we do not have good news.
If we look at the latest graphics from prof. Dr Petra Kočović clearly shows that the peak of the third wave is only ahead of us in seven days, and when asked when the curve could go down, prof. Dr. Kočović replied:
– Not before November 12-15 – explained this expert, adding that it is more likely to happen on November 20, which means that the worst two weeks are yet to come.
This is further proof that this third wave is, by all estimates, the longest with the highest number of infected.
If we remember the situation in July and the second wave crown in Serbia, the flattening and slight descent of the curve first began in Bograd on July 19, that is, about twenty days after the start of the wave. Now it is a much longer period.
Kocovic said yesterday that Serbia was at the end of events, that at one point it was in an excellent situation, but that it was no longer.
– The number of new infected people is growing in the world and yesterday we had a record, more than 500,000 infected people a day – said Kočović.
As he says, few believed this would last long, for now 294 days.
“We have to prepare for longer deadlines,” Dr. Kocovic said.
As you point out, by some measurements, Serbia is currently in the dark purple phase of the epidemic. He adds that the third wave in Serbia is on fire and that we are at the 116 index, which, as he himself says, marks the number of infected in the previous 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants.
– This wave causes a higher infection, but a lower percentage of mortality – Kočović said, emphasizing that the situation is worrying.
How do the calculations work?
– My five-member team of mathematicians and programmers monitors the situation in all 216 countries on a daily basis. We use the Gauss curve (a mathematical model based on the work of the famous German mathematician and physicist Johann Karl Friedrich Gauss) that moves daily. The methodology is unique and based on multiple waves, Kočović explained previously for “Blic.”
Let us remember, according to the evaluation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, countries are in the green zone if they have less than 15 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, in yellow if the values range between 15 and 30 / 100,000, in red if they have 30 to 50 patients during the previous period. 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants and, finally, in the red-violet zone with values of 50-100 per 100,000 inhabitants.
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