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In Serbia, if there are no concrete measures to alleviate the crisis, this year between 140,000 and 160,000 jobs could be lost, it was announced in the latest analysis by the International Monetary Fund after the fourth review of the agreement with Serbia. The IMF also emphasizes that various monetary and fiscal measures taken by the Serbian authorities so far have mitigated the impact of the crisis. Faculty of Economics professor Ljubodrag Savić says it is unrealistic that there are no layoffs in Serbia. New government measures are also possible, he says, adding that retirees should not skimp.
Public debt has increased by about two billion in recent months
Commenting on this assessment of the IMF, Professor Savić said that it was relatively good and that he could not agree and assess whether so many people would be laid off, nor could they (the IMF) be fully convinced that they would be laid off. so. There is no doubt that there will be layoffs in Serbia, and we see it in neighboring countries, much more developed and stable than Serbia, he added.
Savic says the aid package was pretty good and comprehensive, allowing companies to retain labor and stay “afloat.” I think the Serbian state no longer has those opportunities to generously help the economy, so (the layoffs) is an expected consequence, he said.
The short-term measures that were taken gave the expected results: maintaining employment and not causing a big drop in production, says Savić. The second type of measures referred to credit activity, and the whole package of measures weighed around 5.1 billion, and so far 4.3 billion have been used, said the guest of the first half. He said that it is unexpected that entrepreneurs are not in a good mood to use credit funds, although credit conditions are the most favorable that can be given, both in terms of interest rates, and in terms of fact that the state has granted a specific mortgage, if the borrowers cannot repay it, that the state will do it for them. According to Savić, this is a bad sign, which means that the entrepreneurs themselves believe that a difficult time is coming and that it is not the time to make serious investments and start new businesses.
It is neither normal nor realistic to expect us to keep all jobs and all jobs in Serbia, says Savić, recalling that we operate within the market economy and that we have to accept that fact.
“I would not be surprised if the state of Serbia comes out with some additional package, although of course it has other applications. But, anyway, when you do not have a healthy business, if you cannot go out on your own, here you have six months in the branch. green. assistance that is greater than existing, “said Savić.
If you need to save, you just don’t need to save on retirees, says Savić
In the next period, he says, the state should focus on classic social policy measures. However, Savic hopes that most companies will survive.
He says that, listening to what is coming from the top of Serbia, one gets the impression that the Government of Serbia has a very active approach on this issue and that it is aware of the difficult situation we are in and that it is possible to appeal. to a few more measures.
The Serbian state treasury is quite “meager”, we don’t have much chance, especially not to provide significant funds from some current income; everything we’ve done so far comes from loans, recalls the professor. He says that public debt has increased by about two billion in recent months.
It is not up to us to get into a situation to save again (from 2014 to 2018), because there is a paradox in our country: that, as he says, the majority is given to entrepreneurs, and that they are in the previous crisis, in other words, in rehabilitating their Consequently, the burden did not fall mainly on employers, but on retirees and the public sector. That is a lack of logic to consider, he added.
We shouldn’t spend too much money from future generations on loans, says Savić. “That the situation of five or six years ago does not happen to us, when we pay three percent of GDP on interest on the basis of public debt, and that we have rarely had a GDP of three percent since 2008. That is, that “Everything that was an increase in GDP for a year, we actually gave it to serve the interest rate. That is bad, it means that the country is heavily indebted, no matter how much the public debt shares in GDP, “said guest N1.
When asked about the six percent increase in pensions in January, announced by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, Savic said it was about pensioners’ rights and the law, and that the state had nothing to think about. But he had to respect what he had brought and pay the pensioners. what belongs to them.
“Of all the categories, the minimum must be saved in pensioners, that is, they should not be saved at all, because they have gone through considerable agony for four years, some people have not even received a pension refund … It is a vulnerable category, “he says, adding. that pensioners cannot expect to earn some extra money, and it must be borne in mind that they have one more problem than others: that they are generally in worse health, so much of their money goes that way.
Speaking of the Swiss pension formula, he says that it is excellent for those with high pensions, but that for those with low pensions, it is not a significant increase.
We should have emphasized that social sensitivity and that if we need to save, we shouldn’t save for retirees, concluded Professor Ljubodrag Savić.
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