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AUTHOR:
DATE AND TIME:
19.12.2020. 10:52
Serbia is currently in the so-called “black zone”, to which all countries with more than 1,000 infected per 100,000 inhabitants belong.
Photo: Illustration
Professor Petar Kočović, who uses mathematical methods to predict the course of the coronavirus epidemic, predicted the interval at which the epidemic should end in Serbia, according to which the deadline is the second half of August 2021. Please wait a drop in the current number of infected people at the end of December and the end of the third wave of the virus at the end of February next year.
The mathematical calculations used by Kočović usually provide short, medium and long-term forecasts. The short-term ones cover the period of the next 10 days and are the most reliable, while the long-term ones predict the situation for the next months, and the chances of achieving them are the lowest.
However, the forecast that the end of the epidemic will be in the second half of August 2021 at the latest was obtained from a specific formula.
The end of the epidemic in Serbia
Kocovic tells Sputnik that he and his team of mathematicians and programmers obtained the forecast using the famous astrophysicist John Richard Goth’s Copernicus formula, which does not give a value, but rather an interval obtained based on the average value of the sample and certain deviations.
In this case, Kocovic’s sample was about 40 people who he surveyed in recent months, and they all answered the same question: what percentage of time has passed from the beginning to the end of the epidemic in Serbia?
Based on the collected responses, they calculated the interval from March 8 to mid-August 2021.
– It is true that this will not happen in early March. Finally, in mid-August, the possibility is real, especially since vaccines that can help curb the virus in Serbia were announced. What the statistics and mathematical distributions have shown us is that each event, even the medical one, has its own mathematics, Kočović notes.
Decrease in the number of infected at the end of December
According to Kocovic’s calculations, the number of infected people should drop to less than 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants by the end of December.
– We can calculate approximately how much it will be during a given period or day. However, will this happen, or will there be a “disorder” that we cannot predict? The “upsets” are primarily holidays and special events, such as demonstrations. There were strikes in Belarus and it was logical that the number of infected people would increase, regardless of whether the mathematics showed they were going to fall, explains Kocovic.
The end of the third wave in February.
According to Kocovic, the probability that the third wave of the corona virus will end by the end of February is around 70%, if there are no such “disorders”.
– It turned out that the crisis staff measures of a month ago paid off. The curve lowered, the number of infected began to decrease. We can say that the measures helped not everything to go to heaven, but to descend towards earth – points out Kočović.
He points out that the first day after the third wave will begin the fourth, during which he expects the virus to subside due to the vaccine. He is still not sure if there will be a fifth wave.
Serbia is currently in the so-called “black zone”, to which all countries with more than 1,000 infected per 100,000 inhabitants belong.
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