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Judging from the forecasters’ announcements, a warm and somewhat drier fall awaits us, while, unlike last year, a harsher winter could come as a surprise.
Director of the Hydrometeorological Institute of the Republic prof. Dr. Jugoslav Nikolic recently revealed that statistics currently indicate that this winter could be somewhat colder than the previous two or three.
– Statistics currently indicate that this winter could be a little colder than the previous two or three, with a slightly higher amount of snow, but we will know it only in the second half of November, when all the experts analyze the situation and harmonize their expectations – said Nikolic adding that harmonization will be around November 20, when a long-term forecast for winter will be issued.
His colleague, RHMZ meteorologist Nedeljko Todorović, also explained that with a 60 percent probability, you can see what winter will be like by looking at summer.
– A period of cold weather was in January 2017, and that repeats every three to four years. Last winter was warm with very little snow. Based on that certain repeatability rate, this winter is likely to be a bit colder and snowier. That’s a rough estimate – concluded Todorović.
“More likely that winter will be colder than average”
Climatologist prof. Dr. Vladimir Đurđević explains that long-term forecasts change as the season approaches.
– Current forecasts made in October show a greater chance that winter will be colder than average. However, when the forecast is made in November, it can be shown that this winter will be average, notes Djurdjevic.
Over the coming winter, expect temperatures in Europe to be warmer than average over most of the continent, the “Severe Weather Europe” website announced. As they claim, that doesn’t mean there won’t be cold days, but colder air mass will be rarer on land.
According to RHMZ’s seasonal forecast, warm weather will continue into November. December and January are expected to be milder and somewhat drier. RHMZ announces moderate frosts in the third decade of January. When it comes to February and March average temperatures will be slightly above average, there will be more rainfall in March.
The seasons get warmer
Last winter was quite mild and in some parts of Serbia it did not snow at all.
– In the last ten years, we have had several summers that were extremely hot, so this summer seems mild to us. However, if we look at the summers of the mid-20th century, this summer was much warmer, says climatologist Vladimir Đurđević, adding that all seasons are warmer from year to year.
Years ago mild winters
Meteorologist Djordje Đurić says that the winter ahead will almost certainly be colder than the last, and that winters in Serbia have been mild for several years.
– Last winter was extremely mild, there was almost no snow. Winters have been mild for years, and I think the last time we had heavy snowfall in 2012, Đurić says.
Kurir.rs/Blic
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