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In Serbia, the unemployment rate was 26 percent a few years ago and currently stands at a historic 7.3 percent, Finance Minister Sinisa Mali said recently. Employers did not need to lay off workers because of the crisis, as the state, he reminded them, exempted them from paying taxes and gave them a minimum wage, which is obviously the real reason why the unemployment rate in Serbia decreased. at 2.5 compared to the previous quarter. percent.
However, economists recall that it is a known fact that in the period of economic crisis, the growth of unemployment begins only slightly later than the decline in economic activity, so the question arises of how the number of jobs will move. unemployed in the next period. However, according to the latest data from the Republic Statistical Office, in the second quarter of this year, not only the unemployment rate in Serbia was reduced, but also the employment rate – by 0.5 percent, and now it is 48.2 percent. There are 33,200 fewer employees in the informal sector and 87,400 unemployed. The survey shows that in the second quarter, the number of employed was 2,844,200 and the number of unemployed was 222,900.
Economist Milan R. Kovacevic recalls that there are two methodologies to monitor employment and unemployment, which are in great collision.
– Any person who, according to official statistics, contributes is considered employed, and whoever is registered in the office is considered unemployed. These statistics are not directly related to statistics on the total population, with how many of that number of people are working and how many are inactive. Only within the active part of the population should one see how many are employed and how many are unemployed. That is why I think that the Labor Force Survey is not a good example to give a realistic picture of the situation in that sense, because according to it, it is enough to work only one hour a day and consider yourself an employee, and in fact you are not – you are. convinced Kovacevic. If the number of the workforce decreases, it is possible that employment and unemployment will decrease at the same time.
– The reduction in unemployment is highly influenced by the emigration of labor from the country, and the fall in employment these months is also influenced by the situation related to the kovida 19 pandemic – recalls Kovacevic.
Zoran Stojiljković, President of UGS “Nezavisnost”, believes that the number of unemployed in Serbia is several times higher than official statistics show, but when employment and unemployment are decreasing in the country at the same time, which is a statistical case these days, then, according to him, means to increase the number of those who are not well categorized.
– The state has postponed a drastic drop in benefit employment, and when unemployment drops, it means the statistics have lost a lot of people from some records. Many of them leave the country (about 50,000 people a year), which is why they are eliminated from the statistics of the National Employment Service. That is why it can be said that in Serbia, in general, the number of unemployed is much higher than shown. When it comes to employees, the Bureau of Statistics and formal employees count in several categories. This includes not only those who are employed for a defined and indefinite period of time, but also employers and those who are engaged in agriculture, as well as people who have carried out some commercial activity during a certain period. This means that the statistics also include all those who did temporary work, but were objectively unemployed outside of that period. This is how the situation arises that, statistically speaking, the number of employed and unemployed falls by one point – Stojiljković lists.
Estimates by Ljubodrag Savić, a professor at the Belgrade Faculty of Economics, that the unemployment rate, which was measured in previous months, will decrease, proved to be true. However, state aid measures, he adds, only artificially and temporarily halted the growth of unemployment.
– Companies used it to take in the air and stay above the surface of the water, before changing the way they do business and thinking about what they have to do next. The question is what will happen to our economy after the state support period expires. I hope that the growth in unemployment and the fact that the period of seasonal jobs in construction and agriculture, where many workers were hired, is coming to an end, will also lead to an escalation, explains Ljubodrag Savić.
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