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Primarius, an epidemiologist at the City Institute of Public Health and a member of the Kovid 19 Epidemic Suppression Crisis staff, Dr. Predrag Kon, led the fight against the coronavirus in Serbia. , they trust him more. In a conversation with “Politika”, Dr. Kon notes that citizens still need to be careful because the crown is still circulating.
If the downward trend continues, does that mean you can review the epidemic soon?
The pandemic has been declared worldwide and the big question is whether we can formally cancel the epidemic. When there was a swine flu pandemic ten years ago, I asked for it to be canceled in February, the task force then refused, and it was done only in August, when the pandemic ended. It is hard to believe that now it will be something different.
Is it possible that the virus was circulating in Serbia before it was officially confirmed in March? There are opinions that in January, a certain number of citizens had pneumonia with strange symptoms.
These are speculations. We will never be able to confirm or reject such a claim. Eventually, tests to determine immunity may indicate that the virus has been present before. Before the virus was confirmed, doctors treated patients with respiratory problems like flu-like illnesses. The important thing is why, if it really appeared before, did it behave differently, and why we had no serious cases that have appeared since March? Personally, I am less inclined to believe that it was more massively present, but that it was sporadically present is not impossible. There will certainly be a debate on that in Europe as well, but there will certainly be no evidence.
Why countries have performed better in the pandemic against the virus so far is also being discussed. this in relation to the states West
The observation of these differences is evident. For now, there are only estimates of the reasons. The countries of the old socialism had in their establishment the so-called protection of public health. The measures taken were similar. They may have been applied earlier in eastern countries than in developed capitalism. The structure of the health system itself and the assessment of the elasticity and adaptability of these health systems are also important. Our healthcare system has rapidly adapted to fully respond to a severe shock. It showed a vitality that we should boast of.
Does that mean we are, prow your opinionWell, did the first wave of crown disease “get over”?
I think we have overcome that wave solidly and even successfully. We will see what happens next, because we should not relax too much. We are not close to victory yet, because victory means there are no viruses, no deaths for a long period of time. We will probably have a break during the summer, and then we will have to prepare for winter or late fall again.
Does that mean you are expecting another kovid 19 disease wave to appear and could it be stronger?
This is not easy to assess. There are opinions of doctors who think that this will not happen, there are also those who say that the wave will be smoother. I am quite reticent on this subject because we do not yet have information about our collective immunity. It also depends a lot on the behavior of the virus in the southern hemisphere, because winter will only start there, so you will see how the virus will behave. If it turns on, it will most likely come back. But the real answer is that we just don’t know what will happen. We collect as much data as possible to make an estimate.
Are you working to prepare the state for a new coup? If it happens
Everything we do now is part of the preparations. We carry out extraordinary epidemiological surveillance. Immunity tests are part of that, as well as the formation of greedy clinics and serological tests … We already know all the measurements and nothing will change, it’s just a matter of how they will be packaged. It is in the form of a state of emergency, which I personally do not believe, because it has already been experienced once, but it will be something similar.
And would the results have been better if we had applied the so-called Swedish approach in the fight against Kovid 19?
Their approach involves complete surrender to the collective immunity. But he has a tribute in his life, as Dr. Srdja Jankovic would say. According to that principle, there would certainly be more than a thousand deaths. That is the price that would be paid if this approach were respected. This is clearly seen through a single “intrusion” of the virus at the Gerontology Center in Nis, where nearly 50 people lost their lives. Our approach probably has other consequences because we are probably not as well known as the Swedes, that is, we do not have great collective immunity. Either we have to wait for the vaccine or we will gradually catch it by putting off and choosing the situation where, when there are no viruses, those who are most at risk can relax.
What do you expect from the research that will show the level of collective immunity in Serbia?
I hope the infection is not the same in all parts of Serbia. And I don’t think it’s en masse, but far from it. I think it exists, but it is not enough. There are differing views on this among both epidemiologists and crisis staff physicians for the Kovid 19 crackdown. But even when we get the results, it will only be an assessment. To know exactly, we would have to evaluate all citizens, and that is practically impossible.
That means the only thing we can do now isYou should continue to wear masks and gloves and maintain a social distance. Do you think there will be enough masks and gloves in pharmacies now that employees go back to work en masse because they will buy many things to protect themselves?
I heard that much of it is distributed between pharmacies, up to four million protective masks. That’s a satisfying number, and how long it will last depends on how much will be spent.
Is However, is it more desirable than someone who can still work from home?
A decree will soon be approved, according to which companies will be forced to prepare their protection plan during the pandemic, because it will last a long time. This means that companies must also provide the use of protective equipment, disinfectants at the entrance and on the premises … It will be mandatory. For now, we believe that it is better for those who work further from home to do so, until we establish that the virus is no longer circulating. This is recommended, but it also depends on the evaluation of the employer. For example, if there are employees who belong to the risk group.
Most countries have announced that they will ask for confirmation at the border that the person is a covid. Where can those who travel abroad take the test and how much will it cost?
There are attitudes towards that, but a decision has not yet been made. We still have a self-isolation measure in place and it will probably be replaced by a test measure upon entering the country. The same rules will apply to our passengers and foreigners. I think it is better to spend the summer in Serbia. Here we know what the situation is, and somewhere we know what they are telling us.
Epidemiology is the only ideology.
Since he is in the center of public attention and has become one of the most recognized people in Serbia, it has been speculated that he will be politically engaged. Is there any truth to that?
My only ideology is epidemiology and it will continue to be.
How satisfied are you with cooperation with the state leadership?
Crisis personnel had adequate cooperation with the government, professional, sometimes friendly. That is something to be expected, because it interests Serbia. It will stay that way when it comes to me.
Different points of view, but not the conflict with Nestorović
Is it true that within the crisis staff there is a conflict between prof. Dr. Branimir Nestorovic and you?
Different opinions and different approaches are something that often happens in life. There is no conflict. But the opposite views are not good and should not survive in this situation. That is not acceptable when we act on behalf of crisis personnel.
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