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To stop the pandemic, it is necessary to acquire herd immunity, which, depending on production and distribution, could happen within a year to just over two years, writes the Statista portal.
To finally stop the coronavirus pandemic, which claimed more than 1.4 million lives around the world in less than a year, it is necessary to vaccinate 75 to 80 percent of the world’s population. This, if production and distribution capacities are strengthened in the world, could happen in about 400 days after the invention of the vaccine.
On the other hand, healthcare workers around the world, people over 65 and other vulnerable categories of the population could be protected from kovid 19 within 200 days of the vaccine. These are the results of the research published on the Statista portal, which deals with the analysis of statistical data, and predicted three global immunization scenarios after the registration of the first vaccine.
Photo: Tanjug / Zoran Žestić
– On average, 3,600 million doses of vaccines against viral infections are produced annually worldwide. The maximum production capacity is estimated at 6.4 billion doses. Although theoretically this could be enough to create herd immunity in a year, more than half of the capacity has been allocated to the production of other vaccines, says this portal.
Finding and registering an effective and safe vaccine against kovid is only part of the problem the world will face. The mass production of vaccines, distribution and administrative regulation are just some of the challenges that await the world, and according to the “worst” scenario of this research, if production continues with the available capacities, with all the existing limitations in the vaccine supply chain, 1.7 billion doses of vaccine could be produced in one year. It would take more than two years to create a herd immunity.
In the best, but also the least realistic scenario, 5.9 billion doses could be distributed in one year, but that would mean “a greatly increased production”, that is, a large part of the capacity produced by other vaccines it would be redirected to the production of covid vaccines.
– While this scenario is possible, it seems the most incredible, because it would require production capacities to be withdrawn from the manufacture of other vaccines. It would imply that the population in the world is fully willing to be vaccinated, and it would also require the strengthening of distribution channels, says the research.
The most realistic scenario is that according to which, one year after the appearance of the vaccine, with partially increased production, 2.8 billion doses of vaccines will be distributed annually, and the immunity of the herd will be achieved in about 400 days. All scenarios foresee a sufficient dose of vaccines to vaccinate the most vulnerable groups.
Verica jovanovic, director of the Institute “Trampoline”, said that the immunization of the population in Serbia will be extraordinary and recommended:
– First of all, health workers are vaccinated, but at the same time, the elderly population.
Photo: Tanjug / Government of Serbia, Slobodan Miljevic
Scenario 1
With the existing capacities in the world, 1.7 billion doses of vaccines could be produced in 365 days, and we would approach the immunity of the herd in just over two years.
Scenario 2
With slightly increased production capacity and a distribution chain, 2.8 billion doses could be distributed in one year and herd immunity could be achieved in more than 400 days.
Scenario 3
With highly boosted production and new distribution logistics, 5.9 billion doses of vaccines would be distributed in one year and herd immunity would be achieved.
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