[ad_1]
The term that scared us this spring about the corona virus was certainly “exponential curve growth.” With this term, the experts explained the growth of the infected, and judging by the current figures and statements of the Crisis Personnel, this situation is current again.
According to statistical data, the curve that represents the number of infected people in our country has never looked like this, it has literally “exploded”.
The first drastic jump was on Monday, from 341 to 1,053 infected in 24 hours. And then yesterday a new shock: 1,328 new infected with 24 hours.
During May and September, this line was at the lowest values, and during April and July, we had the largest jumps, that is, peaks.
Even during the previous two peaks, the curve did not go up so sharply. Each time, the number of newly infected described a slight semicircle, but now the curve goes as the arrow rises.
What is especially concerning is the fact that we are at the beginning, that this is not the end of this, the third wave. The only way to stabilize the situation is, like the two previous occasions, to steer the curve. This means that the peak can be prolonged, but it is important that there is not a constant and steep growth of the curve and then a complete collapse of the health system.
Because that would mean that at some point there will be a great rush for hospital treatment, and no healthcare system can resist that.
The strongest wave so far
That is why it is very important that we adhere to the measures now, and the immunologist and crisis staff member, Dr. Srdja Janković, also spoke about this.
– The third wave has the potential to be stronger than the previous ones, and that will be and how long it will last depends on how long we will adhere to the measures. We will also try to prolong it, so that we do not experience the collapse of the health system. It’s much more difficult to put out a fire when it starts, Dr. Janković said.
Epidemiologist Dr. Predrag Kon also spoke about how much the curve will grow and how long this period will last.
– That increase is expected to last this week and next. If we can stop it, then that increase will continue into week three, but then it would slow down and it would be nice to be so paradoxical. After that, I hope we can even out the curve – warned Dr. Kon two days ago.
“This is speeding up”
His words were even more dramatic yesterday:
– Unfortunately, we are on an exponential ascent. We cannot expect any flattening or slowing down. This is accelerating and is only gaining traction in Belgrade and other cities, “epidemiologist Predrag Kon said today.
Furthermore, as he said, the actual number of infected is more than five times higher than the number shown. This again confirms the fact that we have a large number of asymptomatic cases, that is, the so-called super-transmitters of the virus, people who have a crown and do not have symptoms, and that is why it is very important that we all wear masks.
This is not the end …
When the curve will potentially begin to straighten, the forecast was given by prof. Dr. Petar Kocovic through his mathematical model.
He stated on his Facebook profile that the number of infected people may start to decline only in the middle of next month, that is, after November 15 or 20.
This is confirmed by Dr. Kon’s opinion that the numbers will only grow …
Belgrade is always the first
Of the 1,382 people infected today in just 24 hours, up to 642 are from Belgrade! Novi Sad is 68, Kragujevac 54, Sabac 39, Pozarevac 30, Nis 26, Valjevo 24, Kraljevo 21, while the others are less than 20.
Video: Five Questions About Coronavirus We Have No Answers To
[ad_2]
