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Boycott of elections or struggles, one, two or three columns, choice of campaign themes, vanity of the leaders – these are just some of the dilemmas that the Montenegrin opposition has solved with great success. On the other hand, the Serbian opposition failed ingloriously in the same tests and showed that they have so far not become a rival of Aleksandar Vučić, much less a serious competitor in any election.
This is what the Montenegrin opposition did:
- took advantage of the opportunities that Milo Đukanović gave him
- promoted new faces
- overcame ideological differences
- respected and exploited the individual characteristics of each opposition list
- used all the ideas that were fatal to Djukanovic, no matter how complicated it seemed
- he refused to shout “whoever is against us is for Vučić” (sorry Mila).
At first glance, it is clear that the Serbian opposition, for incomprehensible reasons, during the last electoral period in Serbia did exactly the opposite of the Montenegrin opposition. And keep doing it.
It was not Mila who defeated Saint Basil, but the mind of the opposition.
Many relativize the historical result of the Montenegrin opposition by stating that Milo Đukanović helped them in this by adopting the Freedom of Religion Law. But circumstances and timing matter in politics, and it’s even more important to use them.
It is easy to think that “Mila was overthrown by St. Vasilije Ostroški”. But is there an issue that could have more easily separated two civic lists, the Becic Democrats and the URA Dritan Abazovic, an Albanian from Ulcinj, from the pro-Serbian parties, than the position of the Serbian Orthodox Church? And the pro-Serb opposition can only count on a third of the Montenegrin parliament. How to attract a civic option?
This is where the political prowess of the three opposition lists comes into play. Serbian parties avoided turning lithium into clergy-nationalist demonstrations with a strong Russian tone, which could easily have happened, thus giving civil opposition room for maneuver. And Becic and Abazovic used that, turning something that is essentially an issue of the Serbian Orthodox Church into a civil issue that concerns the religious freedoms of all citizens of Montenegro.
– I am sure Montenegro needs the Freedom of Religion Law, but a modern European law, and any common sense policy would make that law in half an hour, because only some members are in dispute. We just want to have a fair relationship of all religious communities, bring them all to the same level, and this government did not want to do that, is an example of the statement of Dritan Abazović.
In that way, the Democrats and the URA got the goats and the money. They scored on an issue that Djukanovic did not like and, at the same time, they did not give up their core civic values.
“Bosnian pot” of the Serbian opposition
Unlike the Montenegrin opposition, the Serbian opposition is a strange thing that is not inclined to withdraw logical moves.
It is clear that the opposition in Serbia is broadly divided into several ideological currents:
- local movements leaning towards left-wing ideas (e.g. let’s not drown Belgrade),
- the civil current of the left and the center (for example, DS, Sergej Trifunović),
- right (for example, Popular Party of Vuk Jeremic),
- pro-Russian far right (Dveri, Boško Obradović),
- pro-Russian current without a classical ideological orientation (SSP, Dragan Djilas).
Instead of such a picturesque group accepting the Montenegrin recipe, a political “Bosnian pot” is being persistently made. Everyone should be a single meeting, everyone should think the same, otherwise “they work for Vučić”. Meanwhile, Boško Obradović stabs the partners on the left and the center, while the left and the center tolerate him and thus stabs the eyes of his own voters.
Instead of summarizing the potential of all currents, as in Montenegro, they got a clear negative and rejected voters for whom ideology is as important as opposition to the SNS. They all come boiled out of the Bosnian pot, ready for Vučić to taste in the elections.
Eight years of duck school
From this, we can see that even if Vučić played with relations with the Serbian Orthodox Church and divided political opponents, as Milo Đukanović did, the Serbian opposition, as it stands, would not have the ability to use it.
How would their fundamental ideological differences fit into the SOC, when they are unable to fit into a Bosko Obradovic? (Which is a much easier task).
How do you plan to pull a Zdravko Krivokapić out of nowhere and overnight, if Marinika Tepić is your “new face”?
How do you plan to approach sleeping voters, if the mantra is that no one is good (academics, teachers, journalists …) except Dragan Djilas (interview with “Danas”)?
However, Djukanovic has been in power for 30 years and Vucic for eight. Maybe another 22 years of duck school will be needed?
Klacar: The opposition in Montenegro has learned its lessons
Bojan Klačar, Cesid’s chief executive, tells “Blic” that the opposition in Montenegro has been making mistakes for 30 years, only to beat Milo Đukanović in 2020.
– All you have shown now are the lessons learned and learned. It’s been a long road. The Montenegrin opposition has been through everything the opposition in Serbia is doing today in the last 10 years, says Klačar.
Klacar says there are several reasons why that awareness has not yet reached the opposition in Serbia.
– An issue such as the controversial Religious Freedom Law in Montenegro has not appeared. There was no trigger so big that it could motivate both politicians and voters. The second and more serious reason is that the opposition in Serbia is weaker in financial, infrastructure and logistical terms. Party life in Black Goth is stronger. DPS hasn’t surpassed 40% in popularity in years. As colorful as it may be, the Montenegrin opposition is not as fragmented as the Serbian one, Klačar explains.
Klacar also says that there is an increased awareness in Montenegro about how important it is to find people who can be front men, but not party chairmen.
– When you look at the strategy, the impression is that everything is based on serious research – says Klačar.
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