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Professor Petar Kocovic created a mathematical model that interprets the epidemic in Serbia and predicts when we can expect a complete reduction in infection. If the trends are the same as in the previous ten days, the epidemic will end around May 26, 2020.
According to a cursory survey of the SARS epidemic, swine flu, and especially coronaviruses, these viruses behaved mathematically, according to the Gauss curve. Data is only entered for the number of infected daily.
There is no mathematical model to predict a possible new wave well in advance, but it looks like a tsunami forecast: forecasts can start as soon as the event starts to unfold. Consequently, a warning may be issued that the possibility of a (new) epidemic exists.
The Gaussian distribution allows us to define nine levels that indicate specific dates for a new warning (more positive or negative than the previous one), somewhat like in meteorology, when meteorological alarms are defined.
Modeling the epidemic, its course and end, and the steps to be taken during an epidemic is one possible process. The mathematical model is based on the work of the famous German mathematician and physicist Johann Karl Friedrich Gauss, the greatest mathematician of antiquity, who noted the appearance of the distribution of a series of events and worked on it in 1794 and 1795. Because observed events are bell-shaped, this distribution is also called normal distribution or popular bell curve.
The model was supplemented by the French mathematician Pierre Simon Markus de Laplas in the current form, so this distribution is also called Gaus-Laplas.
Gaus also found his place on the obverse of 10 notes of German Marks, which were in circulation from 1898 to 2001, on the merits of mathematical development. This methodology is used in many engineering and economic and marketing disciplines.
We will use the term epidemiological day instead of the word event for the purposes of kevid 19.
So at first the infection was one or none infected on a daily basis. Then the thing exploded, so the number of infected people increased. Then it starts to shrink. And that reduction will be around zero, depending on some factors: a) the discipline of the population to apply physical distance measures, and b) the epidemic so that it does not explode.
The model is based on input from the World Health Organization around the world and a medical crisis staff for Serbia. This information overlaps with Serbia, but this is not the case for many sites around the world dealing with the same subject.
Regardless of the source of the data, they can be entered under the Gaussian model, but the curve itself and the estimate of the end of the epidermis may differ. Very often the differences are small. Otherwise, he blames himself for each day individually and with the introduction of new data it has nothing to do with the previous days.
The Gaussian curve compensates for the smaller rise and fall, which we call a wave, as well as more waves. If there is a dramatic increase in the number of patients daily, then you should switch to a multi-wave model, which, for now, is unnecessary. A new epidemic cannot be predicted, especially if there is a break in the data (let’s say summer, so continue on to, say, October).
It should be noted that the coronavirus and swine flu epidemic was correlated with the amount of sunspots and sun cycles. When there is a small amount of sunspots, there is no UV-C and IKS radiation, and this number of points, since we have left the bottom of the cycle, increases day by day, so the epidemic will also subside.
(Courier.rs/RTS/Photo Illustration: Profimedia)
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