On the night from Sunday to Monday, the temperature will change dramatically: winter is officially approaching, and this is what the ice cyclone brings us

Photo: Alo! M. Josida

Today, the temperature inversion is maintained for most of the day. In the lowlands, under the fog, it is cold and gloomy in some places with drizzle that can freeze near the ground, and in the mountains and in the south of the region it is sunny and much hotter.

On the first day of the weekend, a core of cold, dry air will descend from the north, the atmosphere will slowly churn, and the inversion will break down. In the lowlands, the sun is more likely to be briefly in the afternoon, while in the mountains, as the day progresses, it will get colder. Maximum of 2 in foggy areas and approximately 10 in areas outside the investment. East and southeast wind, turning north at the end of the day.

From Sunday to Wednesday, there will be a cooling that will bring us a core of cold air from Russia, which will descend towards us on the eastern periphery of a strong anticyclone. However, the models have slowly but surely weakened the Mediterranean cyclone and moved further south and according to morning calculations. It is too weak and the area to the south to account for and bring in some concrete rainfall. Unless there is some change and position, the trajectory or the strength of the cyclone of all the strong stories and the heavy snowfall and the fill is nothing.

This does not mean that there will be no precipitation, but it will be so weak that at present a certain symbolic accumulation is expected only in the mountains above 600 meters above sea level, where it will still be a little colder and a little of snow will be easier to retain.

There will be some rain in the lowlands on Sunday, turning into sunshine and very light snow in the afternoon and Monday evening, and there will also be ice grains in some places. Monday is also cloudy, sometimes with light snowfalls, mainly in the south and east of the region. The wind will turn north on Sunday and die on Monday, while across the Adriatic from Sunday night to Tuesday night there will be moderate and strong bora.

As for air temperature, the cooling will be felt more in the mountains where there was no “artificial” cold these days due to the reversal, and the daily frost limit will be around 700m above sea level on Sunday and below 600m above sea level on Monday. Lowland areas, especially those that have been under low clouds and fog for days, will feel this cooling mainly by strengthening the wind and improving air quality, while the daily highs on Sunday and early next week will range between 0 and 4 degrees Celsius.

Regarding the further development of the synoptics around December 3, there are huge differences in the simulations of the two main models.

The ECMWF around that date simulates the development of another cyclone, but somewhere over the northern Adriatic. Thus, the western and central part of the region would be in the cold sector of this cyclone with abundant and wet snow even in the lowlands, while in the east there would be rains with a significantly warmer climate.

GFS places this high-altitude cyclone much further east and thus keeps air cool throughout the region through December 5, with a greater chance of snow passing over most of the region, including land low.

As for the view on the further development of the synoptics, the period from December 5 to about December 11 will be warmer, from the looks of it, but we should not expect very hot weather.

For all those hoping for a real winter and snow, the great news comes from the long-term ECMWF, which has amplified and accelerated the signal to weaken the westerly winds, slow down cyclogenesis over the Atlantic, and increase the likelihood that zonal winds fall below average with increasing number of calculations. turning from the west to the east winds.