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It is not possible to say with certainty whether companies in Europe saw the “light at the end of the tunnel” earlier or if they feared another blow. In recent days, there have been more and more warnings about the arrival of a new strain of the virus that could “sink” the economy again, and even lead to a new lockdown. And that would mean going back to the beginning of the pandemic, at a time when most believed that the worst was over and that vaccination could lead to an improvement in the epidemiological picture, but also in the situation of the economy.
The bad news keeps coming. Therefore, in addition to the bad statistics on the industry, the stronger European economy is warning about the need for an additional lockdown in Germany to prevent the spread of a new strain of the virus. And one of Angela Merkel’s closest advisers warned about all that.
Just one day later, the top of the European Central Bank announced that the growth of new infections, virus mutations and strict measures represent “a significant negative risk for economic activities.”
And one more thing: the movement of oil prices on world stock exchanges changed overnight. With warnings from officials about new threats, the price of oil began to fall sharply. But let’s go in order.
It may sound scary if we remember that in February 2020, the stock exchanges showed for the first time the danger posed by the corona virus. Now, exactly one year later, the price of oil on the stock exchanges has started to fall again, after intensive growth for several weeks.
And all that happened with the announcements about the possibility of introducing a new blockade in some countries. This was also confirmed by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Other. Apart from the news about the drop in production, the delay in exports, quite harsh warnings and attitudes from the local authorities came from Germany. Thus, a member of Angela Merkel’s advisory team for the fight against the pandemic, Melanie Brinkman, stated that the British strain is spreading rapidly and that the crown will also haunt us in 2022.
“If you want to avoid a long-term lockdown, you must immediately introduce even stricter measures,” Brinkman warned.
In Europe, as she says, the British strain of the corona virus is working, much more contagious than the previous one. It is not yet known if the British strain is 30 or 50 percent more contagious, says this German virologist.
“But, even at just 30 percent, we actually have a completely new pandemic. The new pandemic is heating up in the background, without us being able to see it clearly yet. We will not be able to cope with the measures that are now in place.” It is growing exponentially, so we will have to prevent contacts even more rigorously. The only question is whether we will do it once, decisively and consistently, or enter a short opening, as an introduction to a new close, “Melanie Brinkman said in an interview with Der Spiegel.
Angela Merkel’s adviser is in favor of declaring the total quarantine immediately, because if it is not done, as she points out, “if she doubts, the British tension will force us into an unwanted confinement in the long term. And not only Germany because the British strains (and others) spread to Europe. “
ECB Warning and First Ladies
The president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Kristin Lagarde, recently pointed out the potential dangers for the expected economic recovery of the European economy. It noted that the reappearance of new infections, virus mutations and strict control measures imposed in response to the spread of infection represent a “significant negative risk to economic activities.”
“Production remains below pre-pandemic levels, while the start of vaccination was’ mild at the end of the tunnel, but it is not yet known how the pandemic will unfold. Recovery is expected to begin when measures are lifted. Then, favorable financing conditions will help the economy, politics and demand recovery, “Lagarde said.
The head of the EU central bank explained that inflation remains low despite growth in January due to weak demand and the fall in labor and product markets. Inflation is expected to grow in the coming months, he added, but weak demand and the appreciation of the euro will ease price pressure.
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