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Epidemiologist Predrag Kon expects a further increase in the number of people infected with the corona virus by the end of next week, claiming that only after that can the curve be flattened.
Kon said that there was an exponential growth in the number of infected people in Belgrade and that the accelerated filling of hospitals began, emphasizing that the most important thing now is to stop that.
The epidemiologist believes that a contact ban measure should be introduced.
– We must understand that the measures that were adopted as mandatory must really be implemented. There should be no more passengers on buses who do not wear masks and there should be no people inside who do not wear masks. Personally, I think wearing masks should also be mandatory in the outdoor environment, said Kon.
He emphasizes that the mask is the best protection against the corona virus until the vaccine arrives, and that at this time it can replace more drastic measures such as circulation restriction and curfew.
When asked if the introduction of these measures is being considered, Kon said that if the number of people infected with the corona virus continues to grow exponentially, one cannot “sit idly by” and that “you have to think about it.”
“Regardless of the fact that it is not an option at the moment, it should be considered and very clearly marked when it should be introduced (curfew and movement restriction) – said Kon.
When asked what additional measures could be taken now, Conn said it could be a contact ban.
– I said a long time ago the ban on contacts and all that that means. The prohibition of contacts is a measure. When should it be taken? Yesterday. It is necessary to act immediately – said Kon.
Otherwise, a contact ban means it is Moving outside the home is allowed for any reason, but only individually or possibly with family members from the same household.
Kon points out that there are more and more patients in the hospital and that those who treat them directly know better, and that unfortunately, more and more difficult cases are arriving.
He points out that the onset of the third peak began on October 4 and that at that time a gradual increase in the number of patients was noted in Belgrade.
– We are now finishing the fourth week and next week we will have a further increase in the number of infected people. How it will continue depends on our behavior. Weekends are especially troublesome for us because we have the impression that there are more and more meetings in the afternoon and evening in cafes. The only places where we don’t get to surveillance are entertainment venues – said Kon.
It states that today’s increase in the number of infected consequences of behavior is seven to ten days ago, and that the consequences of current behavior will be visible in ten days.
“If everyone sticks to the prescribed measures by the end of next week, the curve can flatten out,” Kon pointed out.
Kon understands the resistance of citizens to any restriction on movement restrictions, but does not understand the resistance to wearing masks.
He points out that yesterday there were 590 new people infected in Belgrade, and points out that this number should be multiplied by ten because that increases the number of people infected daily.
– Then it is clear why we say that contacts should be avoided. It is unacceptable and irresponsible to secretly organize large entertainment gatherings. Anyone who is infected at such a celebration and possibly has a serious form of the disease has the right to sue the organizer. It should be known that there is criminal liability. However, not enough is said about that – emphasized Kon.
When asked how long the third wave can last, taught by the experience of the first two, Kon emphasized that we meet the corona virus for the first time in the fall-winter season and that we can talk about it at the evaluation level.
– How long it will last can be estimated solely on the basis of experience with respiratory viruses, mainly influenza. This disease has an incubation period twice as long as the flu, and with the steps we take to curb the virus, that means it will last longer. It is estimated to last about 16 weeks, and we are now in the fourth week, which means another 12 full weeks. We have to distance ourselves from the fact that all this is only estimates – concluded Kon.
(Kurir.rs/Tanjug/Foto:Printskrin RTS)
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