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Sergei Lavrov’s stay in the Balkans can be understood as an effort to provide greater support to Russia, especially after the US elections.
Source: Tanjug
Tanjug / AP Photo / Darko Vojinovic
That was assessed by Paul McCarthy, director for Europe of the International Republican Institute (IRI), and Ben Hodges, former commander-in-chief of US ground forces in Europe, expresses hope that the Biden administration is ready to “lend a hand.” to President Aleksandar Vučić.
McCarthy believes that Russia wants to show that it is a player that can be counted on.
“You may be concerned that the new administration, in agreement with European allies, may strengthen its engagement in the region,” McCarthy said in an interview with Voice of America.
An associate at the Washington Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), Hodges, saw Lavrov’s stay in Serbia as a possible opportunity to convey some messages to the Serbian authorities, which, as he says, may not be ready to listen. .
“It seems to me that the Serbian government is less and less committed to traditional relations with the Kremlin. This, for example, shows the attitude of the new Energy Minister towards the director of the Serbian gas company, which cooperates with Gazprom. That too It could be the reason for Lavrov’s visit in those relations, and I hope the Biden administration is ready to lend a hand to President Vučić, ”General Hodges told Voice of America.
Regarding the fact that Serbia did not open any negotiating chapters with the European Union in 2020, Paul McCarthy says that Russia could use that state of affairs to further deter Serbia from the path to EU membership, but he’s not sure. that such aspirations can have an effect.
?? The future of Serbia is in the West? in the EU. Russia simply does not have enough economic power to meet the needs of Serbia. And whether Serbia will meet the EU criteria is up to itself. Russia will try to create chaos by using misinformation about Serbia’s progress towards the EU. But don’t I think I’ll get it? McCarthy thinks.
Noting that part of the responsibility in Serbia is due to the delay on the road to European integration, Hodges notes that it is necessary to “look at what is happening on the other side.”
?? It is not just about Serbia. The EU has not yet started negotiations with two NATO members. “Unfortunately, the Kremlin could use that to drag in all the Western Balkans and the Eastern Mediterranean, if we’re not careful,” Hodges said.
He assessed that the EU has many credibility problems and that it makes decisions slowly and clumsily.
“The peoples of the Balkans and their political representatives are aware that accession is still a long way off. Serbia signed a good agreement at the White House in September, so the fact that a chapter was not opened in the negotiations is a consequence of pressure from the EU and its disappointments in the Serbian-Kosovo dialogue. ” says Ben Hodges.
Hodges disagrees with the interpretation that the choice of the new US administration could influence some kind of turnaround in relations between Serbia and the United States, which, it seems, were improved during the term of President Donald Trump.
I believe that Serbia is ready to continue improving relations with the United States. The Trump administration has not withdrawn recognition of Kosovo’s independence. She exclusively assisted in that process. The Biden administration should continue the efforts and initiatives related to the dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, the “Mini Schengen” initiative and the “Three Seas”. If anyone understands how different Serbia and the Western Balkans are today, it is President-elect Biden. And when he visited Serbia when he was vice president a few years ago, he clearly showed that understanding, ”believes Ben Hodges.
McCarthy considers that the current situation in Kosovo is “quite unstable” and that only Prime Minister Hoti’s party supports the dialogue with Belgrade.
“I think things will become clearer when the elections are held in early 2021. Until then, I do not see that there can be any progress. And, on the other hand, it seems that the wait is in Belgrade’s interest,” he said.
The Washington CEPA expert hopes the United States will continue to view Serbia as a partner in the region and provide Serbia with better options than reliance on the Kremlin.
“The United States can offer better opportunities in terms of investment in the economy. But Serbia is not helping itself when the UN votes against the resolution calling on Russia to withdraw troops from Crimea,” Hodges said.
The two experts do not rule out the possibility that Russia will continue to use the Kosovo issue to pursue its interests in the Balkans.
“The Kremlin does not see any benefit for itself if Kosovo and Serbia can come to an agreement and progress with better economic and political opportunities,” Hodges said.
Paul McCarthy claims that Russia supports Serbia with regard to its territorial integrity and, on the other hand, supports the creation, as he puts it, of a “parastatal in Bosnia”, undermining the unity of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Hodges also points out in this question, while marking them, the wrong moves that can go to the soul of the West.
I think the way you try to undermine the legitimate claims of RS and Serbian officials regarding Dayton, putting aside the policy they are following, does not help. On the contrary, it offers excuses and arguments to the RS separatists and the Russians. Serbia, on the other hand, has repeatedly shown that it does not undermine the statehood of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Serbian interference cannot always be blamed for the failures of Western and local policies in the Balkans, Hodges believes.
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