If we get to 1000, we will actually have 5000 infected! DROPS FLY AND 20 METERS

If we get to 1,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus infection per day, it will mean that we have at least 5,000 more people infected each day, most of whom will have an asymptomatic form of the disease and will spread the infection.

This pessimistic assessment is made by Primarius Dr. Radmilo Petrović, epidemiologist. He says that due to these asymptomatic cases, there is an explosion of kovida 19, and that it will be difficult for Serbia, and all other countries, to stop the epidemic.

Since the outbreak of the epidemic in China in December, it has shown many details relative to all the previous ones that humanity has faced so far. The reason for this is the peculiarity of the SARS-KoV-2 virus, about which Dr. Petrovic, based on all previous knowledge from around the world, had the impression that it is more contagious and resistant than its cousin SARS-KoV. , which caused the SARS epidemic in 2002.. years.

DROPS FLY AND 20 METERS

Dr Petrović cautions that the fight against corona virus neglects the fact that it is transmitted by air, and not just by droplets:

– The droplets expelled by the infected certainly “float” in the air for a while, and the air flow can carry them up to 20 meters. That is why it is important to wear masks indoors and outdoors where there are many people. In addition, this virus remains on surfaces much longer than others. SARS-KoV-2 stays on items safely for two to three days, and this cousin of yours stays longer.

– This virus behaves very strangely, and what science knows about it so far is not enough to make an assessment of what will happen next, says Primarius Petrović.

– It is unlikely that it will disappear on its own, as was the case with the SARS challenger, but that is also possible. We know with certainty that we can only oppose it through a large-scale population infestation, which means acquiring immunity, albeit temporary, after “contact” with the virus, as well as vaccination.

Although there are high hopes for the vaccine, Petrovic says the main question is not just when it will be on the market, but also how much will be available, especially for poorer countries. It is less important if it will be one of the vaccines that are being tested now (three Russian, two Chinese, American or Oxford), but it is more important if it will be provided to a greater number of people, out of a total of eight billion on the planet .

– The pandemic cannot be stopped if all countries do not receive the vaccine, and the countries that will vaccinate the largest population will be the first to fight the epidemic, and where the naturally acquired immunity to SARS-KoV-2 will be the highest – says Dr. Petrovic. – We will have an immune wall only when at least 60, and preferably at least 70% of the population, is protected in one of those two ways. Only then will the virus begin to lose steam. The SARS-KoV-2 threat is sure to last another two to three seasons.

Dr Petrovic, who has faced several epidemics in his career, starting with smallpox, and was actively involved in its suppression, says that the current infection cannot be suppressed by triage at borders by PCR testing or by isolating contacts of smallpox. infected.

– The virus is so present that no one can “catch” all the contacts, nor can they be counted and controlled – thinks Dr. Petrović. – These measures can reduce infection and slow the spread of the virus, but the epidemic cannot be stopped.

Kurir.rs/Novosti.rs

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