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The new government, in which the position of the Socialists has weakened and in which the energy and foreign policy sectors are no longer led by the SPS and the Ministry of Defense is no longer led by the leader of the Socialist Movement Aleksandar Vulin, could be a signal of the turn of the foreign policy of Serbia.
The movement of people who were perceived as close players or who turned to Moscow from key positions is also interpreted as a kind of signal to the world that Belgrade is one step closer to the West and one step beyond Russia.
However, the formation of a new government, four months after the elections, is in a way only the end of the whole process. The signs of Serbia’s distancing from Russian influence could be found in the previous period, through the signing of the agreement in Washington, the freezing of military exercises, but also after the blunder of the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Maria Zaharova, when she compared the scene of the meeting between Vučić and Trump passions “.
Few thought the comparison came about by chance, although Zaharova apologized for his gesture, and more think that the unusual message is in fact a reaction to Belgrade’s different course in international relations.
Shortly after, by canceling its participation in military exercises with Belarus and Russia, Serbia transferred its orientation towards the West to the military field. That is, the Serbian government made a decision in September, which froze all military exercises and activities for the next six months. There were no planned exercises with NATO in that period, and the first, which was canceled and in which the Serbian, Russian and Belarusian armies were supposed to participate together, was planned in Belarus in September.
Then, two days ago, it was announced that the Socialists, who are considered a party that can count on Moscow’s support, had three departments less than in the last convocation, and a more important detail is the fact that they were not assigned the energy sector after a long period.
In addition, care for energy security fell to Minister Zorana Mihajlović, who can often be heard enjoying the support of the West. No less important detail is that the Ministry of Defense is no longer headed by Aleksandar Vulin.
Are all these important details that indicate that Serbia is close to changing foreign policy? Is Russia’s influence weak in Serbia? This is how they are interpreted by the executive director of Cesid, Bojan Klačar, who says that the redistribution of departments also has a scope of foreign policy.
– It is true that this government is reducing the influence that official Moscow can have. By reducing the role of the SPS in his process, he somewhat reduced the potential influence of Russia, which was often reflected in the close relations that the SPS and Dacic have with Moscow, but even more so in the fact that the Ministry of Energy belonged to the SPS, Klacar notes.
The director of the Center for Regionalism, Aleksandar Popov, also believes that to solve the formula of the new government, the most important thing was not the electoral mathematics, but the message to change the course of the foreign policy of Serbia.
– If we look at the previous formation of the government, it can be seen that the participation of the SPS in the government was disproportionate in relation to the number of deputies it had in parliament. I clearly remember that after the formation of the last government, I said that the pro-Russian influence was very noticeable. Now it seems to me that the tickets were not distributed according to the weight of the SPS, but rather they wanted to show that relations with Moscow have cooled down, to which the Washington agreement contributed, but also the warnings from the EU. It seems to me that something else is sending an important signal to the EU and the West, almost half of the government is made up of women, but non-social media cadres, such as Gordana Comic, have also been introduced to Nemanjina 11. I think Vučić thus responds to the European Commission’s objection to the election results. Before, it was valid “what is in the shop window, what is in the store”, now it is not like that, “whoever is not in parliament is in the Government”, which indicates that the Government is willing to dialogue – Popov points out.
Russia has found another partner
Analyst Dušan Janjić believes that the distribution of the sector should not seek a hidden meaning, although he has no doubt that it will also be interpreted as a turn by Russia in Washington.
– In the first place, the influence of the SPS in society and the electorate, which is one of the important positions to take into account, has weakened. Another thing is that in proportion to its influence, the SPS has been powerful in the energy sector over time. However, the takeover of the energy sector by the SNS is an important fact for me, but I think it should not be surprising because the privatization of the energy sector is imminent, but large investments are imminent in the renewal of the mining and energy sector in our country . Dacic did, when he gave his support to the government of Vojislav Kostunica and when he entered the government with Boris Tadic, it became a measure of how close the executive branch is to Moscow, due to the undisguised support that Lavrov and others gave him. But, I think that the role of the SPS is no longer such, that the Russians now have a partner for cooperation within the SNS coalition, but also in the opposition – says Janjic.
VIDEO: Ivica Dacic and Ivanka Trump in Doha
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