[ad_1]
The National Bank harshly attacked international organizations for deliberately making pessimistic forecasts about the movement of the Serbian economy.
“Comparative review and comparison of the projections of the National Bank of Serbia and certain international financial institutions: objectivity, intention or something else?”
Photo: BETAPHOTO / DRAGAN GOJICThis is the title of a statement issued by the National Bank of Serbia in the afternoon, in which, in addition to the change in GDP estimate for this year from minus 1.5 to minus one percent, the central bank is surprised by the latest estimates of international financial institutions, which deviate significantly from it.
“Regarding the economic outlook for this and next year, we are faced with pronounced and very often exaggerated pessimism from some international financial institutions. If this was understandable in March and April, when there were no adequate economic indicators yet and when we were all faced with pronounced uncertainty about the course of the pandemic and its consequences, it is not understandable today, when we already have it publicly available and internationally accepted. and comparable macroeconomic and fiscal data for more than half a year, “said the NBS.
They referred to the latest projections of a three percent drop at the World Bank and a 3.5 percent drop at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as much as these institutions predict for Serbia.
The NBS says that it is not difficult to calculate that such projections are highly unlikely to come true. For the 0.8 percent drop in the first half of the year to actually lead to a drop of three or more estimates, the drop in the second half of the year needs to be greater than five percent, the bank’s calculation shows. central. For example, the decline in the second quarter, when the state of emergency was in effect, was 6.4 percent.
“Already on the basis of publicly available data for July and August, we see that such a thing is practically impossible. For the moment, the National Bank estimates that GDP in the second half of the year will be lower by 1.2 percent year-on-year, with a great possibility that the result will be even better, given the dynamics of construction activity, the pace of industrial recovery and the labor market. declared in the NBS.
The NBS appears to be correct this time about the accuracy of the projection, although the suggestion that it is a conspiracy by international financial institutions is striking.
Experts generally expect the economic recession to be less than three percent and closer to what the government claims than the EBRD, but also that there is no conspiracy in its projections.
Based on the information available and assuming that there will not be a drastic worsening of the health crisis by the end of the year, the Fiscal Council’s working assumption at this time is, according to councilor Nikola Altiparmakov, a drop of one percent.
“I can’t say why the EBRD and the World Bank received estimates of such a deep drop in GDP this year, but I think they may not have looked at the latest data from the end of the summer and probably given that they follow a large number of countries, follow the template in a generic way, so that the technical details of each country are not delved into, as we can and must do in the Fiscal Council ”, said Altiparmakov.
Milojko Arsić, a professor at the Faculty of Economics and editor of the Quarterly Monitor, believes that based on current trends, a drop of less than three percent can be expected, but also that the situation is uncertain.
“The projections of international financial organizations are based on older data, and the larger the organization, the less up-to-date it is, because data is expected from all countries, while the situation of the economies changes from month to month.” There is no conspiracy here and those are the projections for all countries, not just for Serbia, “says Arsić, adding that there is still the threat that the epidemiological situation will worsen and that some restrictions will be reintroduced, although not the same as in the second trimester.
“With the new restrictions, the drop could reach three percent,” warns Arsić.
Ivan Nikolić, director of research at the Institute of Economics, also notes that international financial institutions approach projections conservatively, and there is a particularly specific World Bank.
“Last October, they estimated that GDP growth in 2019 would be 3.3 percent, and it was already clear to everyone that it would exceed four percent. In the end, it was 4.2 percent. “I believe that the IMF, whose mission is now visiting Serbia, will have the best and most accurate assessment, and will be closer to the assessment of the Government and the NBS,” believes Nikolic.
In response to Danas’ question, the World Bank office in Serbia said that “they will publish the Regular Economic Report on the Western Balkans during this month.”
Support us by being a member of the Danas Readers Club
In the age of widespread tabloidization, sensationalism and media commercialization, we have been insisting on the principles of professional and ethical journalism for more than two decades. They banned us and called us, no government was kind to criticism, but nothing stopped us from informing them objectively every day. That is why we want to trust you.
Membership in the Danas Book Club for 799 dinars per month you help us stay independent and consistent with the journalism we believe in, and you receive a PDF of tomorrow’s issue of Danas via email every night.
Related texts:
