Even a new shutdown wouldn’t put the economy too much in jeopardy – Economy

Serbia’s gross domestic product in the third quarter is 1.3 percent lower than in the same period last year, which is the second consecutive quarter with a year-on-year decline, so we are formally in recession.

In the words of the President of the Republic of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić, who, again, before the Republic Statistics Office published a flash estimate of GDP, which the SBS stopped publishing at one point last year and then changed Of opinion, Serbia will have the smallest decline this year. (or second in order) in Europe.

This is very possible, but according to experts, it is unlikely that the scenario that the government envisioned would be one percent or less will come true.

“It can’t be minus one percent. The IMF has estimated minus 1.5 percent, and I think it will be closer to minus two, if there isn’t a major blockage in the economy. But the president is right about one thing, the next year we will not be able to count on the input from agriculture. This year was generous, but it is difficult to expect that next year will not only be even better, but will even have the same performance as this year, “said Sasa Djogovic of the Research Institute Market, adding that much will depend on the processing industry.

Much more will be known about that when we look at the budget and what the authorities have decided.

“We will see if they continue to invest in security or go to other projects, such as the green economy, innovation, the construction of communal infrastructure … Construction is a serious factor in GDP and it is good to go to infrastructure projects, but not it’s good”. that there are no tenders, no feasibility studies, but a small number of people decide if something will be done. “The lack of clarity in the conclusion of agreements is a type of political corruption, and charges future generations with loans,” says Djogovic.

For the drop in GDP to reach one percent at the end of the year, it is necessary, according to a rough estimate, that GDP falls by a maximum of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter.

However, as Milojko Arsić, a professor at the Belgrade Faculty of Economics, explains, last year, in the fourth quarter, there was a surprisingly strong year-on-year growth of 6.2 percent.

“Last year, the third and fourth quarters had surprisingly high growth due to construction growth, which raised some doubts, so in the fourth quarter a fall is likely, and if there is any closure of the economy, it is possible a drop compared to the third quarter. “With two months to the end of the year, even the close, which will certainly not be strong, cannot have too much impact, so the decline is sure to be between minus 1.5 and two percent, “estimates Arsić.

It also points out that in the third quarter the European economies registered a strong recovery that resembles the letter V, which indicates that the main reason for the great setback was the closure of the economy.

According to data from the EU statistical agency, Eurostat, and a preliminary estimate from a dozen EU countries, in the third quarter, the EU’s year-on-year decline amounted to 3.9 percent.

The biggest drop was registered by Spain with 8.7% and the smallest by Lithuania with 1.7%.

According to IMF estimates, Lithuania is still the economy after the second quarter, which should have the smallest economic downturn this year.

About ten days ago, the World Bank estimated that the Serbian economy would shrink by three percent this year.

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