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The expert speaks for Danas about the measures that are mentioned the most in recent days in public
The introduction of a mandatory negative PCR test for travelers coming from abroad to Serbia, as well as the introduction of movement restrictions for the New Year holidays, are not in line with the latest recommendations of the European Center for Control and Disease Prevention (ECDC), says epidemiologist Predrag Djuric. ECDC position, there is no expert justification for the introduction of such measures in Serbia at the moment, whereas, as he says, other justifications can always be found.
Photo: Private archiveHe explains in a conversation with Danas that the arrival of citizens from abroad is not expected to cause a significant outbreak of the epidemic, and that restricting circulation is an effective measure, but it is used when everything else is exhausted, which is not this is the case of Serbia.
When asked what to do now that we are “burning under our feet”, Đurić emphasizes that all other measures must be used first, including closing all non-essential activities, increasing human resources so that help is available to citizens and much more comprehensive tests.
– If that is not possible, then we must listen openly why it is not. For example, is there a resistance from the main businessmen and the church that cannot be overcome? Why can’t we increase testing capacity, why can’t we eliminate queues in front of the ambulance, why can’t we hire volunteers to help monitor contacts, and so on? Đurić emphasizes.
* In the text of the portal 021.rs, he states that he believes that restricting circulation, the curfew, is not a good solution, and that is the measure that United Against Kovid seeks for the New Year and repetition, while members Crisis Staff also mention it. The movement restriction in some form is also a measure that many European countries have introduced, while others are announcing a curfew only for New Year’s Eve. Considering all these voices that support the movement restriction, why do you think that this is not the right measure for Serbia?
– On December 4, the ECDC published its recommendations on the upcoming holidays, in which the driving ban is not recognized as a measure. In this sense, the driving ban in the given circumstances cannot be a professional measure, but only a political one. The second fact is the basic principle for the introduction of measures that violate human and civil rights and freedoms. Such measures can only be applied when all other measures have been exhausted and proven ineffective. Some European countries have introduced night driving bans, but this measure has been accompanied by a series of other measures (for example, the closure of all points of sale, except for food, for a few weeks). Other countries have opted for measures against economic entities, but not for the “imprisonment” of citizens.
In Serbia, the anti-epidemic measures applied remain symbolic; Apart from those that are directed at citizens and refer to keeping distances and wearing masks, the measures towards the economy mainly include restricting the work of the premises. Before thinking about locking up citizens, it is convenient to apply all the other available measures, including, for example, the complete closure of non-essential economic entities for a few weeks, with compensation for the most vulnerable. Furthermore, it is highly problematic from an ethical point of view to silently watch the mass gatherings of thousands of citizens at the funerals of the deceased and say that nothing could be done there, and then put citizens under house arrest.
Home detention of citizens is the most effective and cheapest anti-epidemic measure. It’s just that human life is not an economy, as it seems to some members of the government. Home detention is both the defeat of the “profession” and the defeat of the “state” in implementing other measures that could be effective.
* Doctors and citizens testify that hospitals are overcrowded, some patients are especially in danger, it is increasingly difficult to obtain the necessary care and it is pointed out that radical movements are needed in this context. However, in his text, he says: “For the sake of short-term profits, we run the risk of opening the Pandora’s box of totalitarianism.” But what to do when it burns under our feet?
– Measures proposed by ECDC, as well as measures proposed by WHO, are evidence-based. The fact that it “burns underfoot” is the result of not applying the recommendations of the experts. From the beginning, the WHO stated that the basic measure in the fight against a pandemic is to test all people with symptoms and their contacts, isolate all positives and quarantine all their contacts. Nothing has changed in that direction since the beginning of the pandemic. When you forego exhaustive testing, contact tracing, isolation and quarantine in the first months of the epidemic, while at the same time economic growth and preservation of the economy is your priority, you hesitate to introduce measures, of course. the situation will spiral out of control.
What needs to be done at this time is to allow any citizen who has symptoms or has been in contact to contact a health worker without waiting and obtain the necessary advice, organize work in clinics so that citizens do not have What to expect, find a solution to monitor and test all contacts and quarantine them, isolating all those with symptoms.
All non-essential economic entities should be closed for a few weeks, with compensation through the solidarity fund for the richest. It is necessary to employ a sufficient number of workers in health and social care institutions.
* He claims that the introduction of special measures concerning foreign travelers no longer makes sense. In the past days, KS members and UPK doctors spoke a lot about the introduction of the mandatory PCR test for passengers arriving in Serbia, and it seems that everyone agrees that we need PCR.
– The ECDC estimates that the incidence of infection among passengers is less than one percent, which is less than the estimated 2.5 percent in the EU population. Consequently, it is concluded that the evidence does not support the quarantine and passenger evidence as effective measures.
Quarantine and passenger testing can be effective when the incidence of infection in a country is reduced to approximately zero. Many countries have opted for them in recent months for various reasons. The first is that during the first months of the pandemic, there were indeed significant differences in the frequency of infection between individual countries. Then there were no clear recommendations, although the ECDC cautioned in July that there was no clear evidence that passenger testing could bring any benefit. Finally, I think that the governments of European countries had in mind those arguments that are still heard in Serbia – to show that something is being done that is visible to citizens, for which citizens can praise their authorities for acting, and which was conveniently followed by xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment.
So even then there was no justification for such measures, but they could be understood to some extent because “big eyes are scared” so you listen to your heart and waist, but today, after the clear recommendations of the ECDC have been published , they cannot be justified. in a country where the frequency of infection is not close to zero.
* It could be heard quite often in the previous weeks: our measures are good, the problem is the control of the implementation. Is it just our pain or do Western European countries have the same problem?
– There are several factors to take into account. First of all, the control of the implementation of various measures in most of the Western European measures was well organized and successful even before the start of the pandemic, so it only continued, whereas, I am afraid, that was not the case in Serbia even before the start of the pandemic. One of the reasons is undoubtedly the human resources available: a very limited number of inspectors of different profiles. Another issue that has emerged is the jurisdiction of various infections: who should control what and when.
Hypocrisy and trust
Another problem is hypocrisy, which drastically damages the trust of citizens and the reputation of the inspection services, for example, if there is no reaction to open violations of the measures by some politicians or dignitaries of the church. Furthermore, in the countries of developed democracies, there is a high awareness of the social responsibility of economic entities. Even if they used to be misleading, it will be difficult for them to decide not to respect the measures.
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