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Belgrade: In the last quarter of this year, the Serbian economy could come to life if there is no second wave of coronavirus and major consequences.
Source: Tanjug
Photo: Depositphotos, shirotie
Optimism should be moderate, because the Serbian economy is highly focused on the European one, so opportunities still depend on the development and recovery of the countries of the euro zone, said the online conference today, whose topic was how the Coronavirus affects the market and what changes it imposes. business
The president of the Association of Serbian Economists (SES), Aleksandar Vlahovic, said that due to the coronavirus, the Serbian economy lost practically two years to grow, adding that the country’s economy would return to the level it had in February this year in January 2022.
Of all the forecasts for the Serbian economy, the closest to it, Vlahović said, is the forecast by the European Commission, which estimated that the Serbian economy will fall by four percent and then increase by six percent next year.
“I hope there will be a resurgence in the last quarter of this year, with the precondition that there will be no second wave of the coronavirus or that there will be no consequences that second wave can cause,” said Vlahović.
He also recalled that experts from Macroeconomic Trends and Analysis (MAT) recently announced data that industrial production increased by four percent in the first quarter, mainly due to the results achieved in January and February, but that the decrease continued in March. .
According to Vlahović, these data show that the crisis has affected the automotive industry, the production of base metals, as well as all those industries that cover a continuous chain of production and sales, and that have been affected by the closure of borders. .
He points out that Serbia’s exit from the crisis does not depend only on it, because the Serbian economy depends on the development and recovery of the countries of the Eurozone.
“The projections of the European Commission and the European Central Bank are that the decrease in the euro zone will be 7.5 percent, while in other countries, such as Great Britain, this year it will be the biggest decrease in the last 300 years of the 15 percent, “said Vlahovic.
He adds that without the recovery of the United States, the Eurozone economy will not recover, and without the Eurozone, it is unlikely that Serbia, as a small country, could have a faster recovery.
Vlahovic says that a few days before the presentation of the package of measures, the SES gave recommendations to the government in which direction they should go, and it turned out that they agreed on most things.
The most important thing, he says, is to preserve the liquidity of the company precisely through the postponement of the payment of payroll taxes, contributions …
He noted that EIB assistance of € 1.7 billion will be announced with great help.
Mihailo Vesović, Director of the Strategic Analysis, Services and Internationalization Sector of the Serbian Chamber of Commerce, noted that the good news is that economic activities are returning to normal, adding that as of Monday, 80 to 90 percent of the processing industry will be active.
He also agrees with Vlahovic that the speed of recovery and development of the country’s economy will depend on what is happening in the global market.
Vesovic also notes that between 7,000 and 8,000 people lost their jobs in Serbia during the state of emergency, adding that it was not a “drastic blow” to unemployment.
He says the measures are such that they mostly support micro, small and medium-sized enterprises and entrepreneurs, and they have a social aspect and are aimed at “immediate fire fighting”, while the other part of the measures, loans of the Development Fund and guarantee schemes agreed through the banks, will provide effects in the second half of the year.
Vesovic says the Serbian Chamber of Commerce is now focused on helping the most affected sectors and pressuring the government to take sectoral measures.
“Our expectations are that the beginning of next year will be a return to a zero point, and I think production will start with accelerated growth,” stressed Vesović.
The executive director of the Council of Foreign Investors, Aleksandar Ljubić, said that this was a completely new situation for all entrepreneurs.
The Council of Foreign Investors praised the state’s measures, which, as Ljubić says, mainly helped companies temporarily overcome problems in the market.
“The measures are such that they only cover the first half of the pandemic, and I hope there is not a second wave and that we can all get back to business very soon, but we must be on standby as if the second wave is approaching,” Ljubic said .
He said that the fact is that the package of measures is mainly aimed at small and medium-sized companies, and that this is also important for large companies because their subcontractors are small.
The Investors Council White Paper, he says, will focus on urgent measures to be taken in the event of a new pandemic, to make the economy more prepared than it is now.
He claims that large companies will also suffer losses from this pandemic, but that it will be easier for them to recover.
The president of the Privrednik Business Club, Zoran Drakulić, believes that the crisis caused by the coronavirus is more serious than that of 2008, because then there was no closure of borders, air traffic, factories …
“This crisis is deeper, it will cost us three, four times more and it will last longer. We are not yet aware of the consequences we will have, and I hope there is not a second wave and it is not as difficult as the first,” Drakulic said.
What should concern him, he says, is the situation in the European, Chinese and American markets, which affect the general economy of the world.
“Therefore, I would not share the optimism that we will be much better than others.” I think we should be careful and aware, rather than optimistic, and look realistically at all those facts, “said Drakulic.
He noted that state aid measures are “realistic in relation to what we have” and that they are sufficient if the crisis does not last long.
He says that the sectors most affected by the crisis should now be helped.
He said that smart countries are already thinking about how their economy will be in the next 10-15 years, because it is clear that nothing will be the same.
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