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A few days ago, Serbia officially entered the red-violet zone, with more than 50 infected per 100,000 people in the last 14 days, yesterday we crossed the border with more than 1,000 patients in 24 hours, today we had a new black record with 1,328 new cases, but what is even more worrying is the prognosis, which is deteriorating practically day by day.
Namely, the predictions of prof. Dr. Petar Kocovic, who for months uses mathematical formulas and calculations to monitor the movement of the pandemic around the world, that Serbia will enter the call. red-violet zone. However, the latest calculations show that the situation is more serious than it appeared ten days ago.
Previous calculations showed that during the peak of the third wave, the value could reach 65 infected per 100,000 inhabitants in Serbia, but now the graph clearly shows that the curve that represents the course of the epidemic in our country is much higher, and that could reach values. from more than 100 patients to 100,000 citizens.
And the other thing that doesn’t help us at all is the fact that this third wave, by all accounts, will be even longer than previous calculations showed. That is, in the purple area with extreme values of infected, we could stay the next 25 days, that is, until November 20.
– The peak of the third wave could be between November 5 and 20. But if the situation gets out of control, it could take longer. If there is a sharp increase in the number of infected people in Serbia in the coming days, mathematical models will recalculate the new values, Kočović noted a few days ago.
As the graphs of prof. Kocovic, during the first wave, Serbia was in the purple zone for 17-18 days, and during the second up to 40.
However, the number of infected people that we could have per day is a bit shocking, so it is not ruled out that around November 17, we will have more than 2,400 infected people in 24 hours!
“Actual daily figures will easily deviate by +/- 40% from these averages, meaning the actual high can easily be around 3,500.”
– My five-member team of mathematicians and programmers monitors the situation in all 216 countries on a daily basis. We use the Gaussian curve (a mathematical model based on the work of the famous German mathematician and physicist Johann Karl Friedrich Gauss) that moves daily. The methodology is unique and based on multiple waves, Kočović explained previously for “Blic.”
Remember, according to the evaluation of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, countries are in the green zone if they have less than 15 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, in yellow if the values range between 15 and 30 / 100,000, in red if they have 30 to 50 patients during the previous period. 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants and, finally, in the red-violet zone with values of 50-100 per 100,000 inhabitants.
Until today, Serbia had 83.9 infected per 100,000, but now this number is also increasing …
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