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The epidemiologist and member of the Crisis Staff for the fight against coronavirus, Dr. Predrag Kon, revealed today that he is doing a mortality analysis for the territory of Belgrade in order to obtain accurate data on the number of victims of the kovid.
– It is very important to understand that these data, when it comes to analytics, death certificates arrive at the institutions two months after the month of death, so at this moment I only have data until June and when you look at Belgrade, you can see it in different ways – said about the start of his research as a guest on the morning TV show “Prva”.
He pointed out that it is necessary to know “what is the immediate, basic cause of death of a prolonged illness.”
– There are diagnoses that are most likely related to kovid. For example, pneumonia as the main cause of death has caused the death of 29 people, there have been no cases of this type before. Then bronchopneumonia, unmarked pneumonia … When you add that up, you get what was directly reported as confirmed or unconfirmed, 210 deaths in Belgrade in June – Dr Kon explained.
He compared the mortality data with those of the last four years.
– More deaths were recorded in March, 92 more people died than in the previous four years on average in that month. In April there were 246 more, while in May, 85 less. Again, June 92 recorded a higher than average number during the eastern month of the previous four years. He was dominated by the notion that thousands of people died here, and that has nothing to do with the truth – said Dr. Kon.
He stressed once again that the data is incomplete and that it is still “only assumptions”.
Explosion in July and August
– The explosion occurs in July and August, so these data are incomplete. The first indicators show that there was this in July, as much as in other months, and that the excess mortality is double, up to 500 more, compared to the previous four years, but those are only assumptions. My conclusion is that we have an excess of mortality, as said the Office of Statistics of the Republic, but it cannot be said that this is the same as the confirmed case – concluded Dr. Kon.
He also referred to the model applied by Sweden in the fight against the coronavirus, where significantly higher mortality rates were recorded.
– It’s a model where you do almost nothing and you let the virus spread and you take the victims too hard and they have a large number of victims. The question is what we did, how many victims do we have, and that is something that I am doing now through this analysis – said Dr. Kon.
VIDEO: Kon: The percentage of infected people in Belgrade is growing
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