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Serbian epidemiologists are announcing the third corona virus attack for late October and early November, and Professor Petar Kočović, who became known for his predictions of the epidemic based on a mathematical model, believes that the third wave in Serbia is largely underway.
According to these calculations by Professor Kocovic and his team, the third wave of the corona in our country began on September 14, although we are currently registering low values of only 14 infected per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, many times less than the countries of the former Yugoslavia.
As revealed by prof. Kocovic’s chances of hitting a stronger third wave, with more than 30 infected per 100,000 residents, are currently 61.5 percent, slightly more than a month ago when the first cut of the announced third hit was made.
On that occasion, Kocovic’s team presented a graph of the expected movement of the coronavirus epidemic in Serbia by the end of the year, according to which the biggest hit would follow in the first days of November with more than 60 infected per 100,000 inhabitants . So four more cakes than we have now.
If these mathematical predictions were to come true, by the end of November this figure could be cut in half, with about 30 infected per 100,000 inhabitants, while before the new year we would return to the current more than satisfactory level.
According to Kocovic’s calculations, the first crown wave in Serbia lasted from March 6 to May 26, and the second from May 27 to September 13.
– My five-member team of mathematicians and programmers monitors the situation in all 216 countries on a daily basis. We use the Gauss curve (a mathematical model based on the work of the famous German mathematician and physicist Johann Karl Friedrich Gauss) that moves daily. The methodology is unique and based on multiple waves, Kočović explained previously for “Blic”.
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