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At the beginning of the week, today and Tuesday there will be a slightly stronger current, especially in the higher layers of the atmosphere because the weakened fronts will move north of us. So the conditions to keep the clouds low for longer will be a bit worse and there will be lots of sunny intervals.
In places where there is no fog and low clouds, the daily highs are 6 to 13, and in places with greater retention of fog around 4 degrees Celsius. Night lows of -3 to 1, in the mountains sometimes down to -5 degrees Celsius. The wind will be mostly light to moderate, south today and northwest on Tuesday.
From Wednesday until next week, the predominance of the anticyclone will be followed by a static atmosphere, so that the appearance of fog and low clouds that will persist throughout the day in the low regions will be more frequent. It would be sunny over those areas, especially in the middle of the day. Daily highs in areas with fog of 0 to 3 degrees Celsius, and in areas without fog around 9 degrees Celsius. The wind will be light.
The gradual change in the weather forecast over Europe is simulated by the models around November 26, when the formation of a secondary cyclone over the Iberian Peninsula is expected to move east towards Italy and our part of Europe. At the same time, the models occasionally hint that the anticyclone core could move slightly north toward Scandinavia, and that the cold air core would move along its eastern periphery.
Photo: Printskrin RHMZ
It is not yet clear how the synoptics would develop after November 28, and there are currently two versions.
In one that is even more likely at this time, the cold core will pass further west than us, and will be followed by a cloud cover with rain and snow only in the mountains of the western part of the region, while in the east it would get very hot.
On the other hand, it is possible that the cold core moves to the south and east of the Alps and thus be affected by this cyclonic circulation, in which case we would be quite cold with a worsening of the snow conditions in the low regions for the next Weekend.
Photo: Printskrin RHMZ
– As it is a very complex mechanism, and the systems that will somehow interact with each other do not even exist in a few days, we will be able to say something more precise about the development of situations at the end of the month – emphasized meteorologist Marko Cubrilo.
In the long term, only in the next month, and especially after December 6, the models see the weakening of the westerly winds, and thus the weakening of the influence of the Atlantic and the opening of opportunities for more concrete snow in the lowlands of the region.
Photo: Printskrin RHMZ
The strong influence of the Atlantic (positive NAO, AO, strong polar vortex…) is characterized by a long-lasting anticyclonic state with a dry and stable climate, especially in the winter period of the year in our part of Europe. As the night is considerably longer in winter than the day in a static atmosphere, the cold air, which is heavier, sinks towards the ground and pushes the warmer, lighter, towards the higher layers of the atmosphere. This phenomenon is called temperature inversion because temperature behaves inversely (inversely) in relation to the normal trend when it decreases with increasing altitude.
Photo: Printskrin RHMZ
This situation brings foggy, cold, and gloomy days to the lowlands, and warm, sunny weather to the areas above the fog layer (above the inversion).
So next week in the lowlands, it will often be cold and gloomy in our country, with the predominance of anticyclones, which is exactly the consequence of the strong Atlantic and the “response” of the atmosphere in the form of anticyclone dominance over our part of Europe.
Photo: Printskrin RHMZ
Ads for some epic colds certainly don’t hold up. There is a certain probability that this winter will go in the direction of very cold (especially its second part), but there are many factors that must be in the right place and at the right time.
Photo: Printskrin RHMZ
(Flash)
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