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If the “cure” against the crown will be more serious and if the disease will be seen only after the end of the pandemic. However, it is already clear that the fight against Kovid-19 has strengthened authoritarian tendencies worldwide, which could, along with the plague, suppress human rights and freedoms and further encourage xenophobia and anti-immigrant policies. Humanity’s greatest problem since World War II has caused fear of unprecedented proportions of the invisible enemy. And where there is fear, there is obedience, the most fertile ground for authoritarian regimes in history. After all, will we wake up in the twilight of democracy?
The measures to prevent the spread of the crown pandemic, which are being implemented by more or less every country in the world, are based, above all, on restricting movement, banning meetings, a blocked economy and iron discipline . Such a way of fighting, unfortunately, threatens to provoke, in addition to the economic one, the greatest democratic recession in this millennium.
How real is such a danger and what awaits the world at the end of the crown pandemic, foreign and domestic political scientists, diplomats and sociologists reveal themselves to “Blic” …
AUTHORITARISM AND XENOPHOBIA: A FILM WE ARE ALREADY WATCHING
Foreign policy columnist “Time” and president of the consulting agency “Eurasia Group” Ian Bremer points out to “Blic” that before our eyes there is practically a strengthening of authoritarianism, as well as a further increase in xenophobia and populism, which we witnessed before the pandemic. He also warns that following a severe and deep economic recession, the situation could become even more complicated.
However, remember that the way to fight the coronavirus differs from one country to another.
– China has done a lot of good things with rigorous quarantine and people monitoring, even though its government initially covered the virus, so now we have a global epidemic. However, other countries with similar agreements, such as Russia and Iran, did not prove competent in the fight against Kovid-19. It is similar with democracies. Germany, New Zealand and South Korea are very efficient, while, for example, the United States and Great Britain are much less successful, Bremer emphasizes.
Our interlocutor sees the pandemic danger to democracy, first of all, from the angle of the role that the United States has in the world.
– The global problem imposed by authoritarianism has much more to do with the United States resigning from the position of world leader, giving China a much greater opportunity to increase its influence in countries that are desperate. Especially since the economy in China is recovering, while in the United States and Europe it is still blocked due to the crown, Bremer stresses.
As he says, we must not forget that China is responsible for the outbreak of the Kovida-19 pandemic, since it covered up the virus during the first month.
– The authorities in China did not help their people or the international community, while five million Chinese traveled outside of Wuhan, of whom almost 500,000 went abroad, and the business continued to operate as usual. It was only when China realized it had a huge problem that dramatically changed its course, but the initial sin of the pandemic remains its own, Bremer recalls.
Xenophobia and populism, he adds, increased even when economies functioned long before the pandemic because inequality was high.
– It is hoped that serious and deep economic recessions can increase xenophobia and populism even more significantly. Significantly, more people will feel that the system is against them, which means more anti-immigrant and protectionist feelings and divisions between us and them, Bremer emphasizes.
Consequently, the strengthening of authoritarian tendencies has already been observed in some European countries.
– We have already seen an increase in quarantine measures against Roma communities in countries such as Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania. If large numbers of refugees from Syria, the Middle East and North Africa are seriously infected with the coronavirus, it will only create an unbearable situation for them, Bremer estimates.
THE RISE OF A “STRONG HAND” OR WHEN FREEDOM BECOMES LUXURY AND VICTIM
The president of the American Council on Foreign Relations and an experienced diplomat, Richard Haas, underlines in his column for the “Foreign Affairs Review” that the world is unlikely to be radically different after Pavid-19 compared to the period before the pandemic. Because practically, even before the pandemic, we witnessed a certain kind of collapse of known democratic values.
– The world will be recognizable even after the crisis. The diminished leadership role of the United States, unsuccessful global cooperation, and great power discord characterized the international environment even before the appearance of Kovid-19. It will probably be an even more pronounced feature of the world even after the crown. A pandemic is devastating the open and closed states, rich and poor, east and west. What is missing is any sign of a meaningful global response. Proof of this is the almost insignificant role of the World Health Organization, emphasizes Has.
He says the pandemic will only increase the resistance to migrants and refugees that has been visible in much of the world for the past five years.
– This will happen partly due to the risk of importing infectious diseases and partly due to the expected high unemployment, so companies will be careful when accepting foreigners. Resistance to migrants and refugees will be stronger even if their numbers are even higher because economies can no longer support them, Haas believes.
Furthermore, the crisis due to the crown will intensify the democratic recession that has been evident in the last 15 years, says an experienced diplomat.
– There will be calls for a greater role for the government in society, either to restrict the movement of the population or to provide economic assistance. Many will treat civil liberties as victims of war, as a luxury that is impossible to obtain during a crisis. Meanwhile, threats posed by anti-liberal states like Russia, North Korea, and Iran will continue even after the pandemic passes. In fact, these countries will grow as long as the focus is elsewhere, Has says.
PEACE: AN IDEAL CASE OR ONLY A UTOPIA?
Ideally, the crisis will give rise to a new commitment to build a stronger international order that emerged after World War II and brought peace, prosperity and democracy for nearly three-quarters of a century, writes a columnist for Foreign Affectors magazine.
– That would mean greater cooperation to monitor the outbreak of infectious diseases and combat its consequences, as well as a greater willingness to face climate change, help migrants and fight terrorism. But the past is unlikely to repeat itself after this global problem. Today’s world is not conducive to shaping. Power is being divided into more hands than ever, both state and non-state, Has says.
According to him, the United States is not in the mood to assume a leading international role.
– It is a consequence of the fatigue caused by the two long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and the growing needs at home. Even if supporters of traditional foreign policy, such as former Vice President Joseph Biden, win the election, resistance from Congress and the public will be such that it will prevent the United States from returning to a leading position in the world. At the same time, no other country, not even China, has the desire or the ability to fill the gap created by the United States, concludes Haas, who believes that after the coronavirus pandemic, order is more likely international is similar to that of the First World War. international turmoil.
NEW ORDER AND CAN THE HISTORY BE REPEATED?
Times are difficult and dangerous, Blic’s interlocutors agree. Everything, they say, and anticipate reminds The Great Recession of 1929.
– As a consequence of that recession in the 1930s, we had authoritarian regimes, Nazism, Fascism and the Second World War. Only after that war did we obtain welfare states. Certainly, authoritarian tendencies are strengthened during the fight against Kovid-19, but how this will affect the social environment, that is, how people will react to it, is still unknown. It is a double-edged sword because society can react like a spring, the more you press it with stir: the president of the Forum for Strategic Studies of the Institute of Social Sciences, Neven Cvetićanin, says “Blic”.
Today, by the way, USA USA And China play the role of the USA. USA And the USSR after World War II.
– When the crown pandemic passes, these two great powers should agree on the rules of the international order. We need a new Yalta to stabilize the world again. If there is no agreement between the United States and China, we will have intensified the geopolitical struggles of the big and small powers, and there will be general chaos. In such circumstances, everything is unpredictable, new authoritarian regimes are possible, but also revolutions, because the repeated social lever often acts as a spring – explains Cvetićanin.
It depends on the United States and China whether we will have a world after the First or Second World War as a consequence of the crown pandemic, estimates our interlocutor.
– Either we will have a greater production of crisis, chaos, increased authoritarian tendencies and geopolitical struggle as after the First World War, or there will be an agreement between the USA USA And China on the operation of the international order as after the Second World War. The United States and China decide that they are the major powers that are the antipode of both the economic and state systems, and that is why it will have an impact on the system of the rest of the world, Europe, where we are, the Middle East, Central Asia, believes Cvetićanin .
CRISES GIVE BIRTH TO DICTATORSHIPS, BUT …
The president of the International Relations Forum of the European Movement in Serbia, Ivan Vujacic, emphasizes that many issues of authoritarianism and democracy must be seen in light of various crises that have occurred in the recent past since the euro crisis, migration and the situation in Ukraine until the United States trade war. China …
– Therefore, it is reasonable to suppose that the Kovida-19 pandemic will further encourage certain tendencies towards authoritarianism as an efficient way of solving problems. There are many reasons to think that. In the end, throughout history, crises have been the basis for the creation of authoritarian regimes of the right or revolutionary regimes of the left, which have not been lacking in terms of authoritarianism. The simplest thing would be to answer with a big YES, authoritarianism will be strengthened and imposed as a solution worldwide, and a pandemic is an ideal form of crisis for the spread of authoritarianism – stresses Vujacic.
However, as he says, the world is much more complex.
– Both previous and recent history tell us that authoritarianism has lost mainly in conflicts with democratic institutions: political freedoms, human rights, freedom of expression and the rule of law. Western democracies not only defeated Nazism and fascism, but also managed to rebuild Europe. Through its integration, Europe has become not only economically prosperous, but has become an ideal for many people around the world in terms of lifestyle and democratic institutions. We must not forget that the Cold War ended with the fall of the communist government throughout Eastern Europe and the collapse of the USSR, says Vujacic.
Also remember that ancient western values have become universal values for much of humanity.
– Even authoritarianism is essentially ashamed of itself, which is why it hides behind democratic forms: elections (manipulated), directed debates (“pluralistic”), parliaments that pretend to be themselves and the like. That is why authoritarianism can only be expanding in the short term, says Vujacic, who was our country’s ambassador to the United States from 2002 to 2009.
Our interlocutor believes that truly democratic societies are more humane and attractive, but also necessarily more efficient in the long term.
– Such societies are capable of self-correcting, which is not the case of authoritarian regimes that only succeed in the short term in every way, and in economic preparation. The only real exception is China, which has essentially embraced the Asian development model (Taiwan, South Korea, Japan) with a touch of the Communist Party monopoly. All of the previous Asian examples have moved from the authoritarian to the democratic phase, or to be more precise, to the phase with the most elements of democracy, Vujacic emphasizes.
In the end, all authoritarian regimes act unshakable and eternal, until they suddenly fall.
– All democracies seem chaotic and fragile, but where they have taken root (in the center of the EU, the US and other Anglo-Saxon countries) they survive. Therefore, I believe that various types of covering up the truth about the virus will pose serious problems for those who did. More authoritarian regimes are more prone to that, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they were the first to be criticized by the endangered population that feared for their lives during this epidemic, Vujacic concludes.
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