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The revision of the Dayton Accord, which the new US administration put on the priority list, could seriously shake up the political terrain in the Western Balkans, but also fill the “workbook” and prepare one of the figures so far for retirement. inviolable in this area – Milorad Dodik.
The question of the status of the Republika Srpska and the future organization of Bosnia and Herzegovina will be one of the most important issues in the West in the next period, and with the representatives of the current entity in the “impossible state”, the EU officials and the United States has not. It has been able to solve this “problem” for years. Even the current circumstances do not inspire hope that things will come out of the deadlock.
There is no progress even without Serbia, which is one of the signatories of the peace agreement and the “guarantor of Dayton”. President Aleksandar Vučić recently said that our country is facing a difficult period, that there will be attempts to revoke the powers of the Republika Srpska authorities and that Serbia will come under great pressure.
Dodik review
Milorad Dodik is one of the most successful politicians in this area. He has been at the top of the political scene for more than 30 years, of which the “number one man” of the Republika Srpska has been a key figure for almost two decades. The fact that in this long period, despite numerous changes in the balance of power, the change of government, mainly in Serbia, and then in all the other countries that shape the fate of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been transformed very successful and has survived as a dominant factor. It seems that he came out of each “Dodik review” stronger and stronger, to achieve the most convincing victory in the elections for the position of Serbian member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2018.
From a man who was skeptical of Dayton from the beginning of his political career, going through openly advocating cooperation with the West and accepting compromises, he became, as he is called, an angry opponent of the West, a man on the blacklist of U.S. a “Russian player” in the Balkans, “the last defender of Dayton” and someone who managed to link Srpska’s survival to his own stay in power.
However, in the past year, Dodik’s political commitment has been shaken by scandals, of which the icon he presented to Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will later turn out to have been stolen on the battlefield of Russia. Ukraine was the one that resonated the most with the public.
Sorry for trump
Banja political analyst Luka Tanja Topic tells “Blic” that the new US administration does not agree with Dodik’s will and measure, and that after the presidential elections in the United States, a “real verbal war” started over the influence of the new administration. On the situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the parties want a “firm hand” from the United States and, on the other hand, a softening of relations between the entities and the US administration.
– Dodik still mourns Trump, sends him letters admiring his patriotism. People close to him and his associates scare the public from the “slime of America” who, led by Biden, will show affection towards Bosnians and will harm the Republika Srpska. In general, the relations are ambivalent: Srpska is investing a lot of money in lobbying in this country, trying to remove Dodik from the black list and, at the same time, shows in political activities that some ambassadors of this country are unidentified people. grata – says Topic for “Blic” and adds that Trump was much more desirable to Dodik:
– The Trump administration and its style from the point of view of the political leadership in RS were much more desirable and receptive than the new administration, although I must emphasize that the old one also “kept” Dodik on the blacklist.
Commitment
When asked if the talks with the United States would require someone who would be a softer and more approachable negotiator, and at the same time a protector of the interests of the Serbian people, Blic’s interlocutor said that talks were needed on Bosnia’s internal organization. and Herzegovina. of the three ethnic-national parties are willing to compromise.
– The ones we have now have blockaded the country and tried to show that Bosnia and Herzegovina is a dysfunctional state and brought it to a state where, after 25 years, a stronger commitment from the international community is needed to solve the problem called Bosnia and Herzegovina. RS needs an approach that shows that it sees it in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Everything else is a gambling game with an uncertain outcome. A good part of the international community thinks it is possible to stop some politicians in RS by putting pressure on Serbia, he says.
Stanivuković as Dodik from his youth
And the name of the new mayor of Banja Luka, Drasko Stanivukovic, who managed to defeat Dodik’s candidate and one of his closest associates in the elections in the largest city of Srpska, is increasingly mentioned in the public as someone who could be an alternative in the next period. He dealt a severe blow to the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, after which he threatened to turn off the heating of the people of Banja Luka.
Stanivuković managed to get out of the way that politicians in this area usually start when they come to power, and he managed to win the sympathy of the citizenry. He firmly defends the Republika Srpska and also does not hide that local self-government is not the culmination of his political ambitions.
According to our interlocutor, Stanivuković is someone who unusually reminds Dodik of his youth in politics.
– That’s why there is so much hatred and contempt for him from the ranks close to Dodik. It enjoys growing trust and populist idolatry among citizens, so it is certainly on its way to taking a “more serious” political role. It’s time for some of the former politicians to step down, Topic says.
Cold relations with Vučić
Topic also notes that another aggravating circumstance for Dodik is that, as she claims, her relationship with Aleksandar Vucic has cooled off.
– Dodik thought that he had the exclusive right to represent the Republika Srpska in Belgrade, and that slowly began to change. Relations with the rulers of Serbia were full of public admiration, love and intense. At the moment, they have cooled down and that can be seen in some of Vučić’s movements – concludes the interlocutor from “Blic”.
VIDEO: Scandalous statement: Dodik threatened the new mayor of Banja Luka
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