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This year, some 106,000 people will die in Serbia, which is convincingly the most since World War II, and only 63,000 babies will be born, which is the lowest number of newborns in the last 120 years, demographers’ forecasts are pessimistic. .
The latest data from the Office of Statistics of the Republic shows that the number of deaths in the first ten months is higher by 2,630 compared to 2019, and the number of babies is lower by 1,329 than in the same period last year. The figures also show that only 17,587 marriages were celebrated in the first nine months of this year, down 10,000 less than in the same period last year, meaning that the crying of babies in maternity wards next year will be even quieter. .
Demographer Goran Penev, who has been a research associate at the Center for Demographic Research of the Institute of Social Sciences for more than four decades, recalls that more children were born in Serbia during the Balkan wars, the two world wars and the 1999 bombing. .
– This year we will have a record value of negative natural increase – the difference between deaths and births will be greater than 42,000 inhabitants. In our country, the negative natural increase was registered for the first time in 1992, and in the last ten years some 36,500 more people die than a baby is born. This year, the difference will be greater by up to 5,000 people than last year, which should not surprise us when we consider the corona pandemic. It should not be forgotten that death also affects those who could not receive medical attention in time, either because their operations or radiation were delayed, or because the institutions in which they were treated became kovid hospitals where there was no place for them. – warns our interlocutor.
The demographer also recalls that at the beginning of the pandemic, we had a small morbidity and mortality rate from the corona virus, but already in the summer months, there was a significant jump in mortality. Thus, in the period from June to September, the number of deaths was 13 percent higher than in the three summer months of last year; in July it was even 20 percent more.
A test for each association
Nevena Čalovska Hercog, psychiatrist and professor at the Faculty of Media and Communication in the subjects Family and Family Relations, points out that the crown is a “test” for all families, because many partners were in home quarantine for two and a half months, and some of them still go 24 hours a day. A quality partnership is a sense of security, but we also need new experiences and enthusiasm within that relationship, which the Crown has placed an embargo on.
– At the beginning of the pandemic we had a common enemy and we mobilized all personal and family forces to fight it. However, we have entered the ninth month of the pandemic and our lives have drifted away from all definitions of normality. It doesn’t matter if you live in a house with a patio or a 30-square-meter apartment with three schoolchildren who have to attend online classes. It doesn’t matter if your job is in crisis, if you receive a salary or are fired, and you have loans that you have to pay back. And finally, it does not matter if the partnership was good or bad, if the couples made a divorce decision just before the pandemic, which they could not realize due to the state of emergency, so they have to stay together despite irreconcilable differences and daily conflicts – ours points out. interlocutor.
deaths than in July of last year, which represents a significant increase in demographic terms. When processed statistically, the final two months of 2020 will look even worse, because more than 750 people died from kovid 19 during November, and since early December, the crown has claimed about a thousand lives. That means that 20 percent more people die every day than in the same period last year, emphasizes our interlocutor.
– This year there were about 10,000 fewer marriages than last year, which is understandable considering the ban on meetings and the fact that no one is happy. In Serbia, marriage is an important institution and many couples decide to become parents only when they go before the registry, so it is logical to expect that the number of newborn babies will be significantly less than this year. Many married couples will postpone parenthood or family expansion due to financial circumstances; some have already received pay reductions and large numbers of people employed in the hospitality, commerce, tourism, transport and personal services sectors will lose their jobs or have already been laid off. Going to work abroad will be questionable, because Europe’s ailing economy will not be able to accept new workers. In such a situation, one does not think about expanding the family, concludes our interlocutor.
Although official statistics show that the number of divorces has dropped significantly this year, lawyer Ivan Simić cautions that these data should be considered in light of the fact that the courts during the state of emergency dealt only with urgent cases and domestic violence, no divorces, and that many trials were postponed due to the crown.
– Divorces have not been judged for two and a half months during a state of emergency, and the social work center, which intervenes in the divorce process every time there is a minor child, does not accept parties, that is, parents, during two months. We are currently awaiting instructions from the Ministry of Labor on whether the centers will be able to present a report to the court without speaking to the parents, which should be done on the premises of this institution – says lawyer Simić.
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