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By all the experts’ predictions, although we register an astronomically large number of infected people every day, we still avoid the worst case scenario, according to which we would have 10,000 positives a day. However, we still have at least three crown traps ahead of us, of which we can easily become prey if we do not open all four eyes.
That is, in the days after us, we were able to hear from crisis staff members that we are threatened by the triple digit number of deaths and 100,000 infected, including the asymptomatic. This was stated by the first epidemiologist Predrag Kon.
The death toll will increase, it is mathematically clear. We’ll see that in the next few weeks and that number may be in the triple digits – Kon said.
The numbers have stopped, but …
However, something different happened. No matter how big the situation, the numbers have stopped, albeit at an extremely high level.
This is now a big consequence of the new measures taken two weeks ago.
Professor Petar Kočović’s mathematical calculations agree with that. In the last graph, he shows which one the failure was expected on October 29, and according to him, at the end of December, we could have expected 574,000 confirmed cases.
With the introduction of the measures, the curve has changed, so now the mathematical projections predict that 296,769 cases await us from the aforementioned date until the new year, which is almost double less.
However, there is not one, but three situations that could radically change things: three dangerous dates traditionally reserved for meetings could change the image of the crown in the most negative direction.
St nicolas
Since September and the announcement of epidemiological surveillance at the borders, our crisis staff epidemiologists have been talking a lot about the threat of lighting the most celebrated crown of glory among Serbs, Saint Nicholas.
There are several reasons for this, and one of them is not the corona itself, but the flu, which has been on an upward trajectory almost every year since that day.
– It is realistic to expect that we will have kovid first and then the flu. It doesn’t have to happen, it can happen at the same time. We can assume Kovid, and the flu is usually detected in December around San Nicolás, rarely before. It depends a lot on schools and when they are on vacation. After the holidays, the students come in and the engine starts running, the biggest increase is in February and March – concluded Dr. Predrag Kon.
Saint Nicholas is also the time when a large number of people from abroad left for Serbia, so the worsening of the epidemiological situation is more than certain. Relaxation with food, drinks and music could also affect us in the next period.
There is no member of the Medical Crisis Staff who has not expressed fear in the past period that the celebration of Saint Nicholas may cost us, primarily its confined space, congestion, hustle and bustle, but also speaking out loud.
New Year
Traditionally, there will be no traditional crowds in the squares for the New Year, but what we can see in public every day are announcements and arrangements for New Year’s Eve.
If to all this we add the arrival of people from abroad who have not returned home for a long time due to the whole situation, it is clear that a very uncertain situation awaits us.
The caterers make a lot of offers and the managers of the restaurants in Skadarlija confirmed this to us.
– Here it can be relatively isolated at the table, if there are more of you we can connect the tables. By the way, we respect all measurements, including that of a man in four square meters. All staff wear a mask. There will be tamburitza of music. The New Year’s Eve price of 80 euros includes dinner, but not drinks. Reservations are going well for now. The question is whether there will be places for reservations in December, explains the manager of one of the restaurants in Skadarlija.
Experts warn how dangerous it is. Thus, Dr. Srdja Janković affirms that the New Year should be celebrated with the family.
– Parties or meetings, of course not, because the current measures do not imply a meeting of people. They are prohibited for a reason. We should try to reduce any contact, even with people in the home. We have to postpone everything else for better times, and as for New Years Eve, I’d say it should be in the family circle. If we meet from the beginning, we will get worse next year than we would like – said Dr. Janković and added:
– I know that the end of the year wishes are something that, as we see, Santa Claus must bring us, everything is beautiful and romantic, but we have to provide ourselves with something, and that is a year with less coronavirus, it will be possible if we respect these measures they are in force – he stressed.
Christmas Eve and Christmas
Although we are used to spending Christmas with our family, Christmas Eve is still reserved for a different kind of celebration. Christmas trees are lit across the country alongside churches, and large numbers of believers gather to welcome the happiest Christian holiday.
In addition, in many places it is a tradition to light Christmas Eve in front of family houses where a large number of neighbors come, celebrate and drink until late at night.
Now, this kind of behavior could cost us the effort we put in for weeks. The epidemiologist Branislav Tiodorović also spoke about it.
– If you go to church when the Christmas trees are lit, why is it a problem to have a mask and keep a distance of five feet? Okay, life must run its course, we cannot stop life and those beautiful customs and experiences, but we can do them at the risk of the crown. We must constantly think about that, to celebrate Christmas Eve and Christmas well, but think all the time about how to protect ourselves – said prof. Dr. Tiodorović.
If we don’t respect, then what?
The essence is one, let’s go back to the beginning. The numbers are gradually on the right track, but what if we ignore the measures and step on one of these mines?
– Our biggest problem is not what happened, but only what will come, the New Year holidays are approaching, although we manage to calm it with measures, by behaving as if nothing were happening we will have an explosion after the New Year – warned Dr. Kon .
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