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The corona virus was first a great unknown to us, then somehow we managed to get into its “nature” and now we notice a paradox, not at all naive. Surprisingly, with the decrease in the number of infected, the number of deaths increases!
The epidemiologist and member of the Crisis Staff, Dr. Predrag Kon, was the first to point this out, stating that when there is a “triple digit number of deaths in our country, then there will be a drop in the number of infected people.”
Let us remind you, for now, that the black record is 65 deaths in 24 hours, as it was on Sunday, June 29.
That is, Dr. Kon explained this “paradox”, as he himself called it, by the fact that death from coviditis occurs after three or four weeks, and until then, the situation in our country can be improved as soon as the number of infected people.
– We can expect that these measures that are being implemented will give results in the next two weeks. But the numbers are still very high, so it will only improve in December. In December, we will see that improvement in the numbers as well, but mortality may be higher – Dr. Kon recently said on the morning TV show “Pink”.
And that we will have a triple digit death toll, Dr. Kon announced seven days ago.
– The number of deaths will increase and it is completely mathematically clear. We’ll see that in the next few weeks and that number may be in the triple digits – Dr. Kon said.
The coronavirus is not calming down in our country, and according to all the projections, both epidemiological and mathematical, difficult days are ahead, as much as it sounds to us that it is impossible to be even worse.
So very quickly at this rate we could reach up to 10,000 confirmed cases per day, which would multiply by 10, as many as asymptomatic, we reached a black bill: 100,000 people a day could be positive for the corona virus! Parallel to this is the fact that we will have more than 100 dead.
Unfortunately, according to this calculation, we will have to wait to break the blackest record, to have a lull.
And how the number of urmlih has moved since the beginning of the epidemic
For example, if we look at the two previous waves of the epidemic in Serbia, we will see that the highest number of deaths from the corona virus was recorded on July 10: 18 deaths. We had 386 new cases that day, but it should be noted that this was the top of the curve in the second wave when the number of new cases ranged from 300 to 400 per day.
However, the fact that Dr. Kona’s theory is relevant is demonstrated by the fact that as the curve gradually stabilized in the second wave, that is, as the number of newly infected people decreased earlier As of August, the number of deaths remained high.
In the first half of August, the daily number of newly infected was around 250, and the number of deaths was between 5-9 per day, which, although at the moment it seems a small number compared to the current 61 deaths, it was very high for previous waves. .
We note that, for example, 236 new patients were registered on August 9, while nine died that day, and on August 20, when the number of new cases dropped to 161, five died.
If we look at the first wave of the epidemic, from the end of March to the beginning of April, the number of deaths per day generally ranged from 5 to 7, with only one case of eight and nine deaths. Regarding the number of newly infected at the end of March, that number was mostly below 100, and then during April it grew between 200 and 450, and in the first days of May it fell again below 100.
We reached the peak of the first wave of the epidemic in mid-April, more precisely on April 16, when the number of new cases of infection reached a record 445 for that period, and then, in the following days, that number was halved and the curve began to decline. However, in the second half of April, the death curve “stopped” for days, that is, it varied between 5-7 deaths, which is a high number for the first wave of the epidemic.
This is how we got to the famous “May Day” when we had 196 newcomers, which certainly cannot be compared to more than 400 as it was at the peak of the first wave, but up to six deaths were recorded on the May Day holiday . Let us remind you, given that the number of new cases of contagion decreased in the first days of May, the state of emergency in our country was lifted on May 6.
When it comes to the workload of medical staff, Kon said the biggest burden falls on them, but there is no other, even if “100 patients drop to be treated by two doctors, they will.” He also referred to the new medical centers that are being hastily built in Serbia and emphasized that this will provide additional space capacity, but that medical personnel will remain under great pressure.
Kon explained this dramatic increase in number due to non-compliance with mistrust measures.
– Rational fear provokes caution and, therefore, respect for the mask. If everyone wore masks, at least 95 percent, we could live normally and not talk about incarceration. When the masks are worn just over 60 percent, then we have this situation. When irrational fear spreads, then panic arises, which is bad. Now it is important to tell the truth, spread the truth. Not through bombastic headlines that give the impression of inciting panic, he said, adding that “the sudden surge we are experiencing is a consequence of not believing in the virus.”
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