Professor Petar Kočović calculated exactly the end of the black wave and what awaits us at Christmas

Petar Kocovic, Photo: Printscreen

We are currently with Montenegro, the second country in Europe with the worst indicators. Those who did not believe in kovid 19 had priority over others. There were fewer of them and now they are all getting infected. The number of 1,254 infected per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, the ECDC index, is the second worst in Europe.

More infected korona virusom in the country registered on November 27.

– We’re still in the black zone. The situation has improved in recent days, so the forecast has also improved. Mathematics shows that around December 5, there should be a peak with around 7,500 contagious people daily, and after that we expect the number of infected people to decrease slightly. We should get out of the black zone on December 26. And from the pop star area at Christmas.

This is a brief summary of the coming period and the current epidemiological situation in the country, said computer science professor Petar Kocovic, who, based on a mathematical model, successfully predicted that 7,000 infected people would be registered in Serbia in one day, and then more than that. He explained what it means to enter the dark gray zone, he said that theoretically it means 500 – 1,000 infected per 100,000 inhabitants, that is. 3,500-7,000 new cases of infection. He then said that the country is threatened with entering the black zone in which the figure may be even higher.

He estimated that the dark gray zone lasted until November 15, until November 26, and the next day the highest number of infected people since the beginning of the epidemic was registered in Serbia: 7,780 infected people. The good news is, according to Kocovic’s estimate, the number of infected people will not exceed the infamous declared number.

– Since then, the number of infected people has been slowly decreasing. I don’t expect that number to be exceeded. The math shows that not even 7,500 will cross. However, we are looking forward to today – he says, recalling the traditionally more infamous figures from the second day of the week.

His prognosis coincides with the announcement of the medical part of the Crisis Staff, which is expected to reach its peak this week. As he told us, he thinks it will happen on December 5 and that the curve will start to break. Although he says that the situation has improved in the previous days, and that based on the figures of the last three days, the forecasts have been derailed.

– In a positive sense. But even when it improves, the situation is bad, because we are very furrowed, he says, and states that it is still possible that there are less than 7,000 infected people at the peak if they are below 6,200-6,300 infected today.

He also states that according to current forecasts, he expects the end of the black wave on December 26, and that we could get out of the so-called Pop Star Zones with 300-500 infected per 100,000 inhabitants around Christmas.

– If today and in the coming days is less than projected, then it will move towards the new year – he continues, lowering the positive valuations.

Also, he told us that it is not necessary to report a stable decline. In the example of Slovenia, explain that the fight is painful.

Slovenia was worse than us, so they left and now they are coming back. Instead of going further downhill, they struggle not to cross a thousand. In 996, 100,000 people have been infected in the last 14 days. There are several countries in Europe that are fighting a battle that is unusual for me.

Yesterday, I heard from acquaintances in Slovenia to see what was going on with them. They have no explanation. You can also wait for us if someone declares that it is cool now, and then people start thinking about how the measurements can be relaxed. There are no concessions – he warned, noting that Belgium, the Czech Republic and Switzerland are “treading downhill in fifth gear”, and that despite the fall in the number of infected, they are not considering easing the measures.