[ad_1]
What new measures threaten us, there will be a quarantine, a state of emergency, a curfew … These are our main fears now that Serbia is at full gallop towards the peak of the third wave of the coronavirus epidemic. But what conditions must be met for some of the most drastic measures to return to us?
1. “Kon coefficient” greater than 5 percent
When the state of emergency was lifted in May, the so-called Kon coefficient was around 5 percent. This number represents the percentage of the number of infected in relation to the number analyzed in 24 hours. We call it the Kon coefficient, because the epidemiologist Dr. Predrag Kon spoke more often about the importance of that number in the first attack of the corona virus in Serbia.
To be able to say that the situation with the epidemic is calm and that we actually have sporadic cases of commas, that percentage should be 0.5, while all the more than 2.5 worry epidemiologists.
That we have cause for concern these days is also confirmed by the fact that that coefficient jumped dramatically two days ago, up 3.51 percent! True to will, that number varies, but lately it’s hovering around 2, down to 2.5 percent, which means we have to be very careful.
In addition, it is noted that we have had a triple-digit number of infected for days, we have risen to 173 new cases discovered in 24 hours (October 9), and the forecasts of epidemiologists are not reassuring.
– The third wave of the crown is largely underway and if we do not see reason and respect the anti-epidemic measures, in two weeks we will have more than 500 patients a day, and when we exceed that number, we may decide not to teach in schools and colleges. , the classes will be exclusively online, from home – warned the epidemiologist and member of the Crisis Team for the fight against the crown, Dr. Branislav Tiodorović.
2. Large influx of patients to hospitals
Another key reason that would lead to drastic measures is that our hospitals are full of patients and doctors are forced to choose who to help.
The issue of reintroducing the state of emergency, curfew, quarantine … was also relevant this summer, when the crown in Serbia literally went crazy, that is, when the second wave occurred.
What could be concluded then is that if we return to the situation that we need something like that, it will mean that we are witnessing a catastrophe! That would actually mean our health facilities are in before the shooting, hospitals are full, and doctors are forced to choose who to help.
– In case the health system collapses, there is no other measure than quarantine. The substitute for the blockade is the use of masks, said epidemiologist and crisis staff member Dr. Predrag Kon in early July.
All the other members stated the same.
However, according to information officially published on the covid19 website, Serbia is currently far from that: the number of people hospitalized is currently 329, while we had up to 5,000 people in both real and temporary covid hospitals.
3. Number of patients on the ventilator
This is followed by the number of people with respirators as the next condition.
On July 22 to be precise, Serbia recorded a record 205 patients on a ventilator, but then we had no state of emergency, no carat, and no curfew.
Today, in Serbia, according to the last section, there are 22 people with a respirator.
If that figure holds, we don’t have to worry.
4. Local access points
The closure of cities, that is, the introduction of local quarantines, is not a popular measure and is difficult to implement, but it can happen if large local hotspots occur.
In recent weeks, Belgrade has been marked as the city with by far the highest number of new infected in daily sections, for a long time more than half, even up to 85% of the total number of infected people for the whole Serbia is from the capital.
The fact is that Belgrade has the largest population, but the introduction of quarantine is quite a complicated matter, and read more about it at the link above.
In other cities in Serbia, although every day someone else rises to second, third place, but not even close to the numbers of Belgrade, for now they do not register as much flood of infected people as candidates for the blockade.
However, at the crossroads of the current crown, the situation in three cities, not counting Belgrade, is surprising: Kragujevac, Trstenik and Merošina.
After the capitals with 57 new infected in 24 hours, Kragujevac follows, where 17 people are positive of the 90 tested or one in five! How worrying is the situation in this city, the fact that the so-called Kon coefficient (percentage of the number of new infected in relation to the number of analyzed), which is a very important parameter in the epidemic, is today 18.8 per cent. hundred!
The situation in Trstenik is only worrying and does not calm down: there are up to 5 positives out of the 9 evaluated. Kon’s coefficient here is an incredible 55.5 percent!
Merošina is also concerned because she has had 2, 3 people infected for several days. They were suggested to analyze the situation and introduce an emergency situation if necessary.
Speaking about the strategy of avoiding 500 cases of infection per day, Dr. Tiodorović said:
“The only way out is to know each local community well. We cannot adopt even stricter measures if the outbreak occurs in the largest cities and in some areas that will not understand the seriousness of the situation.”
This speaks in favor of what could happen to local hotspots.
VIDEO: How the crown enters human cells
[ad_2]
