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Health Minister Nelson Teich plans to announce a guide to help states and municipalities plan their social isolation policies, and eventually resume their activities. The plan should be ready this week and take into account three main aspects: the evolution of Covid-19, the structure of the health system and the available human resources. “We already have a matrix ready. In a week from now we will deliver the complete guide, after adjustments, “said the minister, last Wednesday (23).
According to Teich, the suspension of activities proposed by the former minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, was an “absolutely natural and logical measure” for the beginning of the expansion of the coronavirus, but social isolation “cannot be accompanied by an exit program” . . “This is what we are going to draw. This is what we are going to support for states and municipalities, ”said Teich.
The relaxation of isolation was the main reason for the dispute between President Jair Bolsonaro and Mandetta, which ended with the dismissal of the former minister. Despite this, the new minister’s speculated break with the social isolation measures of the previous administration remains timid. In the first press conferences, Teich has only signaled the intention to create a gradual plan to facilitate isolation.
At the press conference on Thursday (23), the Minister of Health said that the formulation of the guideline “does not mean that we are leaving tomorrow” and suggested once again that it does not totally oppose social distance. “There is no choice of isolation or not. It is isolation at the right time and release at the right time. We have to define this on a daily basis. This ability to judge and make a decision is what will allow us to help society, “said Teich.
Regional differences will be of great importance.
A keynote to Teich’s speech on social isolation has been the idea of regional differences. The proposals in the document with guidelines to loosen or intensify isolation, according to the new minister, must take into account these differences.
“Brazil is absolutely gigantic and heterogeneous. There is no way this guideline is not personalized for different parts of the country, for different states and probably for different regions, “the minister said at the press conference on Wednesday.
The Minister of the Civil House, Braga Netto, reiterated Teich’s position at the same press conference. “There is no way to make a package for the whole country,” he said.
According to the Minister of Health, the document that the government will present next week is a model “to be used in the states, in the different regions.”
Criteria for loosening the insulation.
The document with the guidelines will take into account three main aspects: projections on the evolution of Covid-19, the structure of the health system and the available human resources.
According to Teich, short-term mathematical projections on the number of new cases will be an important criterion. The minister, on the other hand, relativizes the reliability of long-term projections.
“What we have noticed is that the models we design in the long term are too wrong. What we have to do today is to project in the short term and be fast and competent enough to make the necessary adjustments. But you can’t guess too much in advance, that’s impossible, “he said.
Teich criticized the repercussions of a long-term research project at Imperial College London, which said that Brazil could have more than 1 million deaths if it abandoned social isolation measures.
“When you see these numbers that are placed there, they are almost always mathematical models that try to predict things that will happen. If you take, for example, a number that arrived, which was the most terrifying, which is that of Imperial College, they said that 1,150,000 people would die in Brazil, but, with some kind of care, it would drop to 44,000. That’s impossible. There is no measure that falls from 1,150,000 to 44,000, “said the minister.
Teich said that another relevant criterion will be the structure of the existing beds in the health system of each region and its percentage of occupancy. The minister criticized the repercussion in the press on the occupation rates of certain hospitals, saying that the capacity of the entire system of each municipality or state must be taken into account, and not only that of specific hospitals.
Finally, the minister mentioned human resources in the health area as a criterion for the new guidelines. The pandemic has intensely affected professionals who work in the front line of their struggle, which also worries the Ministry regarding the ability to care for patients at Covid-19.
How some states are already loosening isolation
Some state and municipal health departments have already begun to relax measures of social isolation, and their guidelines can serve as a model for the federal government document.
One of the most common measures of places that have adopted loosening is the requirement to wear masks in public places. In Belo Horizonte, for example, one of the conditions for using public transport is to wear a mask. In Goiás, one of the states that promoted a greater liberation from commercial activities, the mask requirement is valid for all people who leave home.
Another element present in various state plans is the adoption of different criteria according to the regions of the state. The territory of Rio Grande do Sul, for example, can be divided into up to 21 regions, according to Governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB). Minas Gerais will be divided into 14 health regions.
Two states, Santa Catarina and Goiás, have already issued decrees related to religious temples. The maximum occupancy of these places, in both states, can be 30%. The same limit was imposed by decree in Cuiabá (MT).
